Wednesday, January 08, 2020

Suleimanigate: Big Win For Trump?

I know enough to know that I don't know what's going on.
But thus far we seem to have:
  • The Iranian regime is awful.
  • Trump ignored several provocations by them.
  • Suleimani was awful, and crucial to said awful regime.
  • He was, plausibly, a terrorist, plausibly responsible for many American deaths.
  • He was, plausibly, partially responsible for two recent attacks, including the embassy attack.
  • He was, plausibly, planning more attacks in the near future
  • Killing him was plausibly legal.
  • Iran's response was to respond ineffectually (plausibly intentionally so).
If all those things are true, this is (again, at least plausibly) a big win for Trump. He also got the Dems to show their asses yet again.
   But calling it a win tends to conceal the fact that, much more importantly, he seems to have done a great job--again. Plausibly, at least, given the undoubtedly half-understood information currently available.
   I mean, he's obviously dumb and awful--the worst! He always does the wrong thing! But he sure does get lucky a lot. Curious.
   Of course this stuff typically gets decided on the basis of the outcomes. Or: the perceived outcomes. So how this goes down in history will likely depend on what happens to happen. (Spun, of course, by the progressives who mainly write the histories.) It could still all turn out to be a catastrophe. But it looks pretty good right now from the perspective of a layperson.
   I really do hope there's a way to basically ignore the Iraqi response without emboldening them or other bad guys. The most important group in all this is that composed of the many reasonable Iranians. We probably can't help them--I'm done thinking that there's any way for us to transform the region. But at least we can do our best not to harm them.
   Of course all this could be wrong, as usual.


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