Ed Kilgore: Trump's Conviction Shows There's No 2024 Game-Changer Coming

Eh, he kinda really only seems to think this should be accepted as a "rebuttable presumption." Whatever that means.

link

But this seems pretty clearly wrong to me, FWIW:

[1] The conviction may already be a "game-changer," for all we know. I'd think it'd take some time for its effect to show up in the polls--most people really aren't even paying attention. Also, the Dems have apparently decided to repeat the "convicted felon" mantra ad nauseam--and that could work. And we don't know what sentencing would be like. You'd think that Merchan wouldn't risk another bit partisan move...but that's just a hunch. He might well sentence Trump to the hoosgow, or house arrest, taking him off the campaign trail.

Anyway: I'm not one of those people who think it's going to help him...nor that it'll have no effect...

[2] And, of course, that's the thing about most "game-changers": you don't see them coming. Trump's a loose cannon, in case you haven't noticed, and God knows what he'll say or do next.

[3] And there are all sorts of possibilities that could "change the game" in the other direction: Biden getting visibly worse--being incoherent in a debate, falling down, whatever. Something new coming out in the Hunter trial. God knows.

Anyway, I kinda doubt Kilgore is all that serious about this "rebuttable presumption." Seems like kind of a throw-away post.