Friday, August 06, 2021

Lomborg: Climate Change Doesn't Cause All Disasters

link
I keep posting this kind of stuff, largely because:
(i) I think climate hysteria is the order of the day
(ii) I think the hysteria is, well, hysteria
(iii) I think the hysteria gets more than enough coverage basically everywhere
(iv) I generally don't run across the same kind of...what to call them? refutations via focused summary on the other side of the issue. 
But, whether I say it or not, I acknowledge that the hysteriacs alarmists orthodoxy could well be right.
Anyway:
Ran across something somewhere prominent yesterday, that I can't remember/find now, that said that the western U.S. wildfires were basically impossible without climate change. Which...I'd bet money that's bullshit. 
Relevant Lomborg:
   Similarly, climate change is often blamed for wildfires in the U.S., but the reason for them is mostly poor forest management like failing to remove flammable undergrowth and allowing houses to be built in fire-prone areas. Despite breathless climate reporting, in 2021 the burned area to date is the fourth-lowest of the past 11 years. The area that burned in 2020 was only 11% of the area that did in the early 1900s. Contrary to climate clichés, annual global burned area has declined since 1900 and continues to fall.
   We have data on global deaths from all climate-related weather disasters such as floods, droughts, storms and fire from the International Disaster Database. In the 1920s, these disasters killed almost half a million people on average each year. The current climate narrative would suggest that natural disasters are ever deadlier, but that isn’t true. Over the past century, climate-related deaths have dropped to fewer than 20,000 on average each year, even though the global population has quadrupled since 1920.
   And look at 2021, which is now being branded the year of climate catastrophes. Add the deaths from the North American heat dome, from floods in Germany and Belgium, from Indian climate-related catastrophes that you may not have heard about, and from more than 200 other catastrophes. Adjusted to a full year, climate-related weather disasters could cause about 6,000 deaths in 2021. With greater wealth and technological development, we no longer see half a million or even 18,000 lives lost to climate-related weather disasters, but 6,000.

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