Friday, May 03, 2019

Curry on the Alleged "97% Consensus" About Climate Change

Spoiler alert: it's BS.
BS, part deux.

posted by Winston Smith at 7:41 PM

3 Comments:

Blogger Pete Mack said...

you are linking to a 6 year old article. It is pretty well established that the pause was a combination of
a. A weak solar cycle
b. Sampling bias, by starting in 1998, a record El Nino year. 2 years later, with the next strong El Nino year, the pause was deader than a doornail.

8:32 PM  
Blogger Pete Mack said...

BTW: Judith Curry is much less of an iconoclast these days. She is fully convinced global warming is a problem. She is also convinced the worst case is around 3C rather than 5-6C for CO2 doubling. IF CO2 is held to doubling, that is only a geographically limited catastrophe. But it is still plenty bad.
The quality of her blog is a lot higher now than it was in 2015. Back then, she would link to just about any paper, even without giving it a critical read. Some of those papers were 100% prime crackpot; that is, they made assumptions that were wrong or useless by inspection, with no math required.

There is still one big weakness in her blog: comments are unmoderated, so it is hard to find valid criticisms of the papers she posts. And there are an overwhelming number of comments.

9:02 PM  
Blogger Pete Mack said...

BTW: if you care about this, here is a more detailed explanation.
https://watertechbyrie.com/2014/06/23/the-unstable-math-of-michael-ghils-climate-sensitivity/
The late 90s were extra hot and the next 12 years were somewhat cooled by a known variable system. When the system shifted again, the temperature jumped to catch up. In the past, that pause would have showed up as an actual down trendx rather than a flat line.

9:20 AM  

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