Sunday, September 14, 2008

Thomas Edsall On: McCain's Lies, And a Possible Genuine Shift McCainward

This is worth a read.

Edsall notes that the McCain campaign has, as should come as no surprise, decided to take a gamble on viciously negative campaigning and flat-out lies--in fact going beyond what would have been considered permissible even in the sleazy world of politics. Edsall asserts that this strategy is predicated on the hypothesis that respect for and the authority of the MSM has fallen past the point of no return. So the McCain campaign can basically do and say whatever it wants (witness the fact that they continue to tell the "bridge to nowhere" lie, not to mention a whole host of already-discredited other ones).

And, unfortunately, what we are seeing in the polls may no longer be a bounce, but a real, widespread shift to McCain across a number of important demographics.

Not only is it not time to panic, but it is positively the time not to panic, says me. First, we don't know yet. Second, panicking will help nothing and harm our chances significantly. The most salinent ethical priciple here is the one Peirce is so fond of:

Never say die.

We're not in serious trouble yet. Though things have, of course, looked better.

Unfortunately, McCain is in a good position now. The press so desperately wants to like him, and is so hesitant to call lies lies, that he actually seems to have two options:

First, now that he's taken the lead, he can back off and run a less-dirty campaign. Now that he can just play defense, there's no reason to stick his neck out on such blatant lies anmor. In fact, he could just keep up the lies and slander unless/until the media and the public really start to grumble seriously, and Obama starts hitting back blindly (as he sort of did with the recent McCain is Old ad), and then he can just suddenly start a sweetness and light schitck, leaving Obama and his retalition ads hanging out there, making him seem like the one that's gone negative.

Second, he could just keep it up. The media might keep grumbling about him "stretching the truth," but they probably won't call it lying, and even if they did, the McCain camp might be right: nobody cares. The central story about Palin is the bridge to nowhere tale. It's been proven utterly false, and nobody who isn't already for Obama seems to give a rat's ass. So, unless/until the negative consequences of telling the lies outweigh the utility, why stop?

I guess we should know in about a week how the polls will stabilize. This leaves us a to-do list for right now:

1. Do not freak out.
2. Contribute money until it hurts
3. Go down to your local HQ and get to work.

Even if you're in a fairly safely red state, remember: every front we can open up against these evil bastards is another front they have to expend time and resources on.

So:

Chins: up.

Loins: girded.

Game faces: on.

Let's get to work.

2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Another important consideration to keep in mind is the debates. Obama may get some wind back in his sails after his debate with McCain and Biden's debate with Palin.

11:51 PM  
Blogger matthew christman said...

another reason not to panic: there is an emerging consensus among political scientists that campaigsn are radically less important to the results of elections than is generally believed; economic health and the status of war and/or peace tend to shape elections almost completely, with the "narratives" and "framing" and other horseshit of political campaigns really only working on the margins. Every single electoral projection (based on economic data, mostly) put together by political scientists has Obama winning by anywhere from three to ten points.

1:23 AM  

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