Thursday, December 21, 2017

A Bet Is A Tax On Bullshit

Not a new thought, but well said.
Kant says it, more or less. But I originally learned it from Statisticasaurus rex.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here's an old write up of a DARPA project that ran into political trouble. Note in particular the use of conditional futures contracts that allow you to link events, for example the US government debt will be greater than X in 2023 conditional on passage of the Republican tax reform.

8:02 AM  
Blogger Winston Smith said...

Ha! I did a little work on one of these projects--though I think that one might have been under the auspices of IARPA. There were a couple of competing prediction-market ideas, and I was really working mostly on a different project, but some of the people overlapped.

I think it's really interesting stuff, though I didn't stick with it.

8:19 AM  

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