Monday, October 07, 2024

Trump/Harris: RCP Betting Market Average Tied

Seems to me that things have been shifting Trumpward for some time.
I've heard speculation that the blue team has been gaming the markets...but I have no idea.
They shifted Harrisward after the debate, but only recently started to new polling. Well, seemingly, anyway.
A lot of the optimism on the red team is based on Trump's historical overperformance in polls. On the one hand, you'd think that pollsters would have corrected for that by now. OTOH, I'm sure there are still "shy" Trump voters--that is, voters who refuse to tell a stranger (or anyone else for that matter) that they're voting for Trump. That can mean the end of your job, your career, and/or your personal life.
I'm still trying not to care much. But I do remain reasonably confident that Trump will win, hence we'll end up with the bad outcome rather than the terrible outcome.
Keep yr fingers crossed!

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