Nate Silver: Current Presidential Odds: Trump 61.3% Harris 38.1%

UnHerd link

A gut-wrenching shift from the last Biden odds he calculated (67-ish%-27%?)...but still a big advantage to the good guys.

Though, more seriously, it's not really good guys v bad guys, really.

I once heard someone--I think it was Kokie Roberts?--say that, when she went off to D.C. for her first gig, her father said something to her like:

Always remember and never forget: 

The Republicans are the bad guys

and 

The Democrats are the crazy guys.

I think that's pretty good. It's kind of known game to figure out the best formulation of this little contrast.

I guess I tend to favor:

The Republicans are stupid guys

and

The Democrats are the crazy guys

 

Of course both parties have stupid and crazy and just plain bad in them...it's about the proportions...but why ruin the joke? (too late)

   Funny that I didn't used to consider the Dems crazy...but people who knew a lot more than I did did. They're batshit crazy now. I wish I had a better view of that they used to be like. But I really did think they were the good guys. They were certainly pretty nutty before Bill Clinton sent them back toward the center... What I wouldn't do for another Bill Clinton Presidency right about now... Of course that's some measure of how insane the Democrats have gone: today, Bill Clinton would have to run as a Republican...and his old party would call him Hitler. He'd be painted a homo"phobe" for not favoring same-sex marriage...and even ca. 2000 Clinton would simply refuse to believe that ca. 2024 transanity was a real thing...

Anyway.