Are We Deluded?
O.k...I'm wondering it...you're wondering it...it's the nature of being a wimpy liberal:
Are we deluded?
About the election I mean.
I mean: here we are. I guess that all the denizens of P-raptor passionately believe that Obama would be a better President than McCain. The evidence seems overwhelming...it seems clear...it in no way seems like a close call.
But look across the aisle. Over there's a bunch of folks, every bit as intelligent and well-informed as we are...well, o.k., not every bit...but close...and convinced of the proposition that McCain would be better than Obama.
Passions are running high--exactly the circumstances under which we're most prone to errors. We've endured eight years of perhaps the worst administration in American history. We're angry. We're fed up. And consequently we are, rationally speaking, vulnerable.
Suppose your life depended on getting the answer to the following question right: what are the odds that we're wrong?
So what's the answer, Mr. Smart Guys?
O.k...I'm wondering it...you're wondering it...it's the nature of being a wimpy liberal:
Are we deluded?
About the election I mean.
I mean: here we are. I guess that all the denizens of P-raptor passionately believe that Obama would be a better President than McCain. The evidence seems overwhelming...it seems clear...it in no way seems like a close call.
But look across the aisle. Over there's a bunch of folks, every bit as intelligent and well-informed as we are...well, o.k., not every bit...but close...and convinced of the proposition that McCain would be better than Obama.
Passions are running high--exactly the circumstances under which we're most prone to errors. We've endured eight years of perhaps the worst administration in American history. We're angry. We're fed up. And consequently we are, rationally speaking, vulnerable.
Suppose your life depended on getting the answer to the following question right: what are the odds that we're wrong?
So what's the answer, Mr. Smart Guys?
posted by Winston Smith at
6:25 PM
6 Comments:
1) We're not trying to maximize the same utility functions.
2) We do not agree about the functional relationship between government actions and the likely outcomes on the utility functions we do agree on.
3) As a society, nobody but us geeks want to talk about 1 and 2.
4) Confirmation bias does the rest.
I'm a fellow Obamaphile. Maybe these questions will help us to test the waters on the issue of how deluded we may actually be. What are the WORST expected results of an Obama presidencey and what are BEST expected results of a McCain presidency? I think a bad 4 years for Obama would still be better than a good 4 years for McCain, but I need to think about this more. Winson, what do you think?
"...all the denizens of P-raptor passionately believe that Obama would be a better President than McCain."
I suspect you may be forgetting one T van Dyke esq there, Winst.
But dude. We're right.
well, I go by the opinion of the loyal opposition. There was a time that John Cole was a Republican. Same for Jim Webb. Chuck Hagel still is. I've got my differences with th, but I recognize them as part or the RBC. And these guys are by and large supporting Obama, despite their differences. That counts as a pretty reliable second opinion. A lot of this is independent of McCain. He's part of a political party that has thrown in with the whole "deficits don't matter"; "we make our own reality" crowd. Until the national Republicans (or should I say Whigs?) get back on the same gameboard as everybody else, it's going to take an exceptional candidate for me to consider voting for him. If you want to see a longer list, check brad delong's Order of the Shrill. Alot of those guys are (ex) Republicans.
p mac
Obama will not usher in utopia. In fact, given all the significant challenges we face as a nation and the relatively small rudder he can apply to move the supertanker of American democracy, the differences will often be hard to see.
The economy will still be bad. We'll still be in Iraq for a while. Global warming will continue. Public education in the inner cities, where its most vital, will still suck. Republicans will still probably be able to stymie the Senate. Obama will still be at physical risk because he's black and moderately liberal and (I hope) in power.
So, assuming those of us who are Obama supporters wake up on Nov. 5 hungover from celebrating, not from sackcloth and ashes, that's actually when the really hard work starts.
Whoops. Forgot the second half.
McCain, we know, would be four more years. No, not on every topic, but on nearly every topic. McCain's core claim is that he'll do Bushism better. For me, better badness is not a positive.
McCain doesn't have the insight to want fundamental economic changes (i.e. return to the post-WWII mixed economy and equity consensus). His party wouldn't allow them anyway. We'd stay in Iraq permanently. CO2? Burn, baby! The GOP would continue to offer low-dollar vouchers and market magic pixie dust for education, which they're more interested in flaying than in fixing.
Is it possible that Obama would bring something worse? Extremely low probability.
The probability I can't dismiss is that it might already be too late. For example, if a new depression comes, I foresee the fall of the American empire (though that's hardly daring). Then the centripetal forces here at home might be too great to resist. Partition would probably wind up with war, so that's a bad thing.
The chance we're wrong is very low. McCain is not only a lesser potential leader; he's for the wrong things.
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