Calls for Obama to Fight Back
Another, from Terence Samuel at The Root.
It's largely right, I think. We know that the Republicans are ruthless and ruthlessly efficient when it comes to dirty campaigning. We also know that the highest of high roads doesn't work.
But the suggestion from people like Samuel seems to be: take the low road.
My guess: this will not work either.
Even setting the moral issues aside, Dems can't get away with the sort of things Republicans can get away with. If Obama said the kinds of things about McCain that McCain is saying about Obama, the race would be over. The press would go into a frenzy, and many Obama supporters would, admirably, abandon the cause.
Trying to out Rove McCain simply will not work.
But there's room between going Rove and just taking it.
My guess about strategy goes like this:
1. Go hard at the lies and smears.
Call McCain a liar, in so many words and repeatedly. Take some of the most egregious lies, make commercials exposing them, and play them relentlessly.
Example:
"Obama passed legislation helping children learn to defend themselves against child abuse. McCain lied outrageously and repeatedly to the American public and told them that the law told kindergarteners how to use condoms. John McCain is willing to make our children more vulnerable to child abuse to win an election. Fight back against John McCain's lies."
2. Hit them on the abortion issue and never let up
I am stunned that abortion has not been mentioned once in any Obama ad I've seen. This is one issue that is a clear winner for the Dems.
Example:
"McCain opposes abortion. Palin opposes it even in cases of rape, incest, and threats to the health of the mother. McCain and Palin: they think they should run your body. Tell them you don't want them running our country ."
3. Paint them with the flip-flopping brush
This charge is a proven winner, and it's accurate.
Example:
"Flip: John McCain [hugging Bush again] voted with George Bush over 90% of the time. Flop: but he began to lose the race, and now wants you to believe he's for change. Flip: Sarah Palin was for the bridge to nowhere when she ran for Governor. Flop: she turned against it only after it became a national outrage and Congress cut off funds. Flip: John McCain said he would run an honorable campaign. Flop: when he began losing, he switched to the dirtiest and most dishonest campaign in over a generation, even hiring Bush adviser Karl Rove to work behind the scenes. Flip: McCain. Flop: Palin. Don't be fooled by flip and flop."
As Mark Kleiman has noted, no matter how good our ground game is, unopposed air power will demoralize the troops. Dishonest and despicable though McSame's ads are, they are creative. Obama's positive ads are great, but his attack and response ads are lame. I don't like it any better than anyone else, but we've got to play the game. But doing it this way is honest and honorable. We can't descend to their level, but we can't just take it either.
Another, from Terence Samuel at The Root.
It's largely right, I think. We know that the Republicans are ruthless and ruthlessly efficient when it comes to dirty campaigning. We also know that the highest of high roads doesn't work.
But the suggestion from people like Samuel seems to be: take the low road.
My guess: this will not work either.
Even setting the moral issues aside, Dems can't get away with the sort of things Republicans can get away with. If Obama said the kinds of things about McCain that McCain is saying about Obama, the race would be over. The press would go into a frenzy, and many Obama supporters would, admirably, abandon the cause.
Trying to out Rove McCain simply will not work.
But there's room between going Rove and just taking it.
My guess about strategy goes like this:
1. Go hard at the lies and smears.
Call McCain a liar, in so many words and repeatedly. Take some of the most egregious lies, make commercials exposing them, and play them relentlessly.
Example:
"Obama passed legislation helping children learn to defend themselves against child abuse. McCain lied outrageously and repeatedly to the American public and told them that the law told kindergarteners how to use condoms. John McCain is willing to make our children more vulnerable to child abuse to win an election. Fight back against John McCain's lies."
2. Hit them on the abortion issue and never let up
I am stunned that abortion has not been mentioned once in any Obama ad I've seen. This is one issue that is a clear winner for the Dems.
Example:
"McCain opposes abortion. Palin opposes it even in cases of rape, incest, and threats to the health of the mother. McCain and Palin: they think they should run your body. Tell them you don't want them running our country ."
3. Paint them with the flip-flopping brush
This charge is a proven winner, and it's accurate.
Example:
"Flip: John McCain [hugging Bush again] voted with George Bush over 90% of the time. Flop: but he began to lose the race, and now wants you to believe he's for change. Flip: Sarah Palin was for the bridge to nowhere when she ran for Governor. Flop: she turned against it only after it became a national outrage and Congress cut off funds. Flip: John McCain said he would run an honorable campaign. Flop: when he began losing, he switched to the dirtiest and most dishonest campaign in over a generation, even hiring Bush adviser Karl Rove to work behind the scenes. Flip: McCain. Flop: Palin. Don't be fooled by flip and flop."
As Mark Kleiman has noted, no matter how good our ground game is, unopposed air power will demoralize the troops. Dishonest and despicable though McSame's ads are, they are creative. Obama's positive ads are great, but his attack and response ads are lame. I don't like it any better than anyone else, but we've got to play the game. But doing it this way is honest and honorable. We can't descend to their level, but we can't just take it either.
posted by Winston Smith at
9:24 AM
7 Comments:
1 and 3 seem good. Maybe it's my own bias, but 2 seems like a bad idea. Here's my reasoning:
First, anyone for whom being in favor of abortion is a major seller is probably not going to be unaware of the fact that the Republicans are not their party.
Second, a major voting demographic (especially in Ohio, according to NPR) is Catholics. As we saw in 2004, when the abortion spotlight gets shined on the Democrats, they tend to lose this demographic. I would imagine other religious groups, which Obama seems to have gone to some effort to court, would be equally unenthusiastic about this emphasis.
Again, maybe it's just the fact that I am part of that demographic that makes me more aware of it. And I don't have a lot of voter statistics at hand, but it's been my impression over the past few elections that I've paid attention to that the pro-choice line is something that works best for the Dems when it's firmly in their platforms, but not frequently in their ads. But maybe my impression is wrong.
(Actually, it seems like the opposite is true w/ the Repubs, too...emphasize pro-life with your base, but be more quiet about it with everyone else.)
Interesting point about OH...but, overall, the abortion issue is a clear winner for Dems, just speaking in terms of numbers.
Of course, more Americans agree with Dem policies that GOP policies in general...and we see how much good *that* does...
Actually, that's something I've been wondering about for a while...the relative popularity of the parties' platforms.
Do you know of any surveys or statistics about this? I'd just be interested in seeing them. I tend to think that most of the country agrees with the Republicans out of pessimism and fear of the orgiastic shouts and jeers that responded to the RNC speeches by Giuliani and Palin. But then again, I'm from the Capitol of the Confederacy, so the demographics I am usually around probably skew my perception.
Oh yeah, and Pennsylvania (at least in major parts) seems to be a similar situation to OH re: Catholic voters. At least, if my subsequent Googling is to be trusted.
Could it be that the numbers for Americans agreeing with the Dems on abortion are higher than the number of electorally-important Americans who agree? (I'm talking about the weighting of the electoral college here, not the inherent value of my voting demographic - after all, I'll be voting in Illinois, where my vote will basically count for nothing either way.)
But isn't the question really: what percentage of the relevant people are anti-abortion enough that they're willing to make it illegal in cases of rape, incest, and threats to the health of the mother?
I mean, you could still be right, but I thought the numbers were pretty high in the Dems' favor on that score.
Winston and Spencer,
The abortion issue is messy, because there is a broad spectrum of opinions on it, especially as regards what government policy should be (e.g funding, pre-vs post-viability etc.). Other issues are more easily mapped onto an either/or template.
But this and other collections of surveys suggest much broader agreement with the Dems' positions:
http://mediamatters.org/progmaj/report
Two good points, guys.
Winston - yeah, actually, I was just thinking in general pro-life vs. pro-choice terms rather than on the specific and extreme views of Palin regarding rape, incest, etc.
Lewis - thanks for the stats. That's very interesting. And, of course, you're right to point out that the issue is much more complex than I was painting it. Thanks for that.
I'll withdraw my stronger, original statement and just say this, then: before the tactical wisdom of pushing the abortion issue can be assessed, one should look at polling in the specific states which will be battleground areas. I do not know enough about those areas to be able to assess it.
The end.
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