Tuesday, October 11, 2005

More on Bird Flu

From CNN.com.

I ponder situations like this a lot. How much concern is appropriate? I've decided to get prepared, and I suppose I'll look like a nutty survivalist if nothing happens. But to paraphrase my dad on the subject of insurance: the best case scenario is that you waste your money. That is, of the two relevant scenarios ((i) I prepare and there's no epidemic and (ii) I prepare and there is an epidemic), I vastly prefer the former.

26 Comments:

Blogger Azael said...

Pray tell. What preparations will you make? Short of cutting off all contact (or severely limiting it) with the rest of humanity, I don't see what any survival stockpiles of either gun, water or food will help you out here.

If such a pandemic occurs, food and water will still be available. Electricity will still be there. It's the medical care and the lack of effectiveness of any that you receive which will be the primary survival issue you face.

And, short of stockpiling tamiflu - and even then, I doubt that would do much good - I'm curious as to what insurance you are "buying" to increase your chances of survival.

10:08 PM  
Blogger matthew christman said...

I'm thinking that, since the greatest threat is being in public places during an epidemic, that what you'd need is lots of stockpiled food so you wouldn't HAVE to leave your house.

12:31 AM  
Blogger Tony D said...

There are lots of preps one can do that are common for any given emergency. Having several weeks or months of basic food stuffs in the pantry has long been considered a prudent thing by many groups other than right wing survivalists. Understanding water and how to treat it is also a good thing to know. I watched people in N.O. hauling around junk in containers and plastic bags that could have been used to make simple but effective solar still while dying of thirst!

As far as preps specific to a pandemic two things come to mind. First is to get into the best physical shape you can. Lose the extra poundage, eat right to boost your immune system, quit smoking and drinking (okay cut back on drinking) and work yourself into a good cardiovascular routine. All good things we SHOULD be doing anyway. The second prep is a little dark from my perspective as a father but you’ve got to plan for the worst which in my mind is leaving my children orphaned. Children should have readily available identification papers they can take with them. Your wishes as to who cares for them should be written and known by several trusted family members and friends. Now would also be the time to make arrangements for their financial support if at all possible.

There is a pretty good web site on disaster preparation at www.72hours.org

It’s worth checking out and is a great place to start exercising the grey matter.

10:15 AM  
Blogger Winston Smith said...

Thanks for the link, Tony D.--I'll check it out.

THere's also good stuff on the flu wiki.

Azael--
According to some folks in the know, a serious flu epidemic could mean that food would, in fact, become scarce, and that water and electricity might only be available (in, presumably, a worst-case scenario) one day in three.

The goal, I think, is to put yourself in a position such that you are not part of the problem (i.e. you are not a person without food and water, who others must take care of), but, ideally, could be part of the solution (i.e., you could help others in case food and water become hard to come by).

6:13 PM  
Blogger Azael said...

Well, I think this is a good idea. Myself, we have food in 10 year lasting vacuum packed cans to last 10 people for about a month. I have enough water for an army for a month - and that's without dipping into the hot tub, our water heater and purifying the coy's pond water (coy will provide some tasty meat as well). And we live in an agricultural area so we can likely live for years (mmmm brussel sprouts).

But my point is that by the time the pandemic hits, you're likely already infected or will be imminently. I would find it highly unlikely that the water supply would be affected in a such an event - it is, after all, gravity operated and requires almost no human intervention for quite some time. It's not like the flu will destroy power lines or disrupt water flow.

This is not a dawn of the dead scenario, by any means. Unless this is literally killing hundreds of thousands per day in the US - and even then - it's just not going to be a nightmare scenario like that. And if it is, then it's not going to matter - you're already dead.

Agreed that if you're one of the lucky ones to somehow miss the super infection (unlikely as that is) you'll be glad you have your survival gear. And if you're super paranoid and happen to be a high tech worker that usually works from home and is a social hermit, then you may vastly increase your chances of not getting infected by dipping into your MREs.

I'm far more concerned about earth quakes (in my area) and such for exercising my investments in survival gear than a pandemic. What's going to matter in the avian flu pandemic is how the authorities isolate and apply quarantine. And, again, unless we slip into a dawn of the dead scenario, even in the worst case scenarios there will still be plenty of food, water and power to these areas. My guess is that if you find yourself in a quarantine area, you probably are already infected.

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Blogger Tom Van Dyke said...

I remember when I died from SARS. That sucked.

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