Trump: On Track to Win?

The Once and Future POTUS leads in all swing states other than Wisconsin, where RCP shows him with a 0.3% deficit. His lead has (unless I missed something) been growing in them all other than GA, where it's fallen slightly. He's up by 0.3% in PA and a whole percentage point in MI. The RCP betting markets averages stand at Trump 56.5 Harris 42.5 57.7-41.3. Polymarket says 56-39 58-38.

   It's still a tight race.

   And there's plenty of time for him to blow it.

   There are losing cues on the blue team. 

   But they seem to have switched to emphasizing the Trump's unfit to govern angle...which, IMO, is the only good angle they really have. And it's sufficiently powerful.

   Or would be.

   If the Democrats had not gone insane.

   Now it really doesn't matter so much that Trump's personally unfit to govern. He's basically sane, with basically sane policies, and a proven record of success and good governance. And there are lots of rails in place to keep him between the ditches. The Dems are just cracked. They've adopted the wrong values, a deranged worldview, and some unhinged philosophical ideas. They are now the Orwellian party. If Trump lives up to his promise, he'll do well. Should the Dems live up to their promise, it will be a disaster.

   But...

   The fitness argument is a powerful one, and it's certainly the one I'd lean hard on if I were the blues.