Jessica Leeds Accuses Trump Of Sexual Assault

People aren't good at detecting liars. 

But people tend to think they're above-average at all sorts of things they're average at.

I don't think I'm any better than average at detecting lies. But I think I'm at least passably good at detecting bullshitters--and I don't mean bullshit. Detecting bullshit isn't that hard in many cases. But even when a bullshitter is saying something that isn't detectably bullshit, IMO it's possible to tell that they're a bullshitter at rates better than chance. 

   For example, as I've said many times, I think Christine Blasey Ford is a bullshitter. Though it's not a clean case because significant objective evidence for that conclusion ultimately arose (the stuff about flying, the stuff about the front doors). At any rate, her mannerisms basically screamed loony bullshitter to me. I was downright angry when people kept asserting how terribly credible! she was. It just wasn't true. That was an appalling spectacle.

   If I'm wrong about that, I'm going to hell...but I'm probably not wrong.

   More to the point: near the other end of the spectrum is Jessica Leeds. I have a strong inclination to believe that there's very little chance that she's lying:

It's not rape, but it's not good. It's something that warrants a punch upside the damn head, that's for sure. And I'm appalled that another guy was sitting there and not doing anything to stop him.

   For the record, I have no delusions about being able to make a reliable judgment in every case, nor even most of them. But I'd bet some money on Ms. Leeds's claims if given the opportunity.