Wednesday, October 10, 2018

What If We Found Out The Truth About The Kavanaugh / Ford Incident?

It would matter practically...but how much would it matter with respect to assessing the rationality / reasonability of the the respective camps? I mean...ultimately, I suppose I'm so undecided that the oscillations of my doxastic needle don't matter too much. CBF's account could be true. It doesn't involve any overt internal inconsistencies, it loosely coheres with some facts--e.g. about BK's crowd of friends and the date of the 7/1/82 party...to within about seven weeks... I've already talked about its weaknesses.
   BK seems to have been quite a drunk, and possibly a bully, and he seems to have either started or at least dramatically escalated at least one bar fight. So I think there's objective support for JQ's hunch that he is (or at least was) a mean drunk. He probably lied under oath...but he lied about undergraduate drinking...and I'm given to believe that that's the sort of thing people look the other way about. (Though he seems to have turned himself around, and to be a pretty exemplary dude in adulthood.)
   At any rate, neither one scores high when their story's held up against the available evidence. 
   Subjectively, in terms of demeanor and so forth, I didn't find either of them notably credible, for what that's worth. Actually, we know what it's worth: basically nothing. Ford in particular set off alarm bells to me. But so what? What's more important is that, objectively speaking, nothing she showed us meets any significant standard of proof. 
   So suppose we found out that Ford was making it all up? Or that she isn't? What would it matter? I've inclined more toward disbelieving Ford somewhat more than I disbelieved Kavanaugh, I suppose. But if we found out she was lying, it wouldn't me make any righter in any significant way. Hunches are about a half-step better than flipping a coin in a case like this. Of course if Ford turned out to be right, the left would claim that this showed they were more reasonable, and the right would do the same if the tables were turned.
   So, though I'd obviously very much like to know what actually happened, it wouldn't really mean anything for the rationality of the respective sides. It would make one side lucky, but that's about all.
   This isn't quite right...but something like that.

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