Wednesday, June 13, 2018

I Have No Idea What's Going On: The Trump-Kim Summit

It's become even clearer to me that I'm almost always clueless about foreign policy.
Which doesn't actually distinguish it from domestic policy.
More and more I just sit back and hope for the best.
Everybody on my side of the fence derided the Reykjavik Summit, and look what that achieved.
There's probably some fallacy in play there.

2 Comments:

Blogger The Mystic said...

So, the best I can do is study this:

https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron

I heard from some arms control folks on NPR that every agreement present in the one which resulted from the recent summit has been made before, and this seems to verify that.

The four recent agreements are:

1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new US-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.

That's something of a nothing, so whatever.

2. The United States and DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

Also basically nothing.

3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

As it states...this is a reaffirmation of a prior commitment. There have actually been more rigorous commitments, including verification processes (which failed). Brief summary:

* 1985: North Korea accedes to the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) but no safeguards agreement with the IAEA

* 1992: The two Koreas sign the South-North Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Also, North Korea concludes a comprehensive safeguards agreement with the IAEA.

* 1993: NK is cheating on the agreement, the IAEA demands inspection, NK announces withdrawal from the NPT, talks ensue in New York with the US, US says it won't hurt NK, NK gets back on with the NPT and inspections.

* 1994: NK is cheating, refuses IAEA inspections. Carter negotiates, NK says they totally want to freeze their nuclear weapons program. Three-stage process is proposed for removal, US assents to normalization of diplomacy, blah blah.

* 1996-1997: Negotiations aimed at getting NK to stop developing ballistic missiles. Sanctions are imposed.

* 1998: NK has an unexpectedly advanced missile.

* 1999: NK agrees to suspend long-range missile development in return for lifting sanctions and security guarantees from US

* 2000: Big sanctions relief for NK, agrees again to no more missile tests. NK says it will stop developing rockets (totally for space, not missiles) if the US launches satellites for it.

* 2001: NK accuses US of torpedoing diplomacy, starts sabre-rattling.

* 2002: US says NK is a part of the axis of evil. NK fears nuclear strike, threatens its own. NK says it won't allow IAEA safeguarding procedures for its nuclear facilities for at least three years. US announces awareness of secret NK nuclear missile program. NK reopens closed nuclear facilities and program in response, kicks IAEA out of country.

I'd go on, but well, you get the point. The document to which I link is pretty enlightening.

4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.

I heard on teh radioz that this has been stated before, as well, but I don't see it in the document I reference (though it is explicitly about arms control, so it may just not note that stuff).

10:46 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This article discusses a broader topic than the summit, but I think it nicely describes the immense benefits that the US and the world have gained from post-WWII liberal order:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/15/opinion/sunday/trump-china-america-first.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-right-region&region=opinion-c-col-right-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-right-region

6:36 AM  

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