Vernor Vinge and the Fall of Civilization

Link

Don't know much about this fellow, but there are things there worth reading.

I've noticed that the orthodoxy seems to be that only kooks think about the fall of civilization. Apparently, it's regarded as basically impossible. My attitude is more like: it's not terribly unlikely. As the system becomes more complex, there is more interdependence and less self-reliance, and as the population gets more and more out of control, some kind of crash becomes easier and easier to envision, and recovery less likely. I don't obsess about it, but I don't see why anyone would think that it was extraordinarily unlikely.

Mr. Vinge says the following interesting thing: building civilization a second time would be harder in a way and easier in a way: harder in that we've used up all the hydrocarbon fuels, easier in that cities are like big dumps of things like steel I-beams.