Why So Nervous?
It's become common for denizens of the leftosphere to ask: with us up by so much, why is everybody so nervous? (Universe of discourse: Obamaphiles.)
Lots of theories get batted around, including ones about the Bradley effect, doubts about polling, worries about the efficacy of the "socialist" offensive, concerns about an October surprise...
But the real answer, IMHO: though the probability of a good outcome is high, the cost of a bad outcome is very, very great. Hence the expected loss is high, even though its likelihood is small.
It's a little like having a biopsy where the chance that you have cancer is only 5%. Sounds low...but, see, it might be cancer...
I think we're going to win. (I think we're going to win because Nate Silver thinks we're going to win, incidentally.) But a loss would be so %$^&ing disastrous that I can't help but fret about it semi-constantly.
Get out there and GOTV, friends. We can't afford to just hope for the best.
It's become common for denizens of the leftosphere to ask: with us up by so much, why is everybody so nervous? (Universe of discourse: Obamaphiles.)
Lots of theories get batted around, including ones about the Bradley effect, doubts about polling, worries about the efficacy of the "socialist" offensive, concerns about an October surprise...
But the real answer, IMHO: though the probability of a good outcome is high, the cost of a bad outcome is very, very great. Hence the expected loss is high, even though its likelihood is small.
It's a little like having a biopsy where the chance that you have cancer is only 5%. Sounds low...but, see, it might be cancer...
I think we're going to win. (I think we're going to win because Nate Silver thinks we're going to win, incidentally.) But a loss would be so %$^&ing disastrous that I can't help but fret about it semi-constantly.
Get out there and GOTV, friends. We can't afford to just hope for the best.
posted by Winston Smith at
4:46 PM
1 Comments:
I think we're going to win, too, but there's many a slip 'twixt cup and lip, and we've seen too many hopes slip away before.
At least no one's getting complacent.
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