Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Al Qaeda: McCainiacs?

So is al Qaeda rooting for McCain?

If they release something publicly endorsing a candidate, I've argued that that tells us basically nothing about their actual position because it presents us with a Holmes-Moriarty problem. They know that if they endorse A, this makes us more likely to vote for B, and we know that they know that, and they know that we know that they know that, and so on.

But in this case the pro-McCain chatter was nabbed off a password-protected site, so it's far more likely to be an honest expression of their beliefs, whereas releasing a tape publicly would probably be an attempt to influence our actions. So I don't think there should be much doubt that the (alleged) al Qaeda member who posted the comment does, in fact, believe that it would be better for the U.S. if Obama were elected.

Of course, the comment in question is just one guy's opinion, so I don't see that it should be weighed too heavily. If the tables were turned, of course, McCain would already have a commercial about this running. But that doesn't mean we should act that way. Still, you might say that a randomly-selected al Qaeda operative is more objective about this matter than anyone on either side of the American election, and, so, his opinion constitutes evidence of at least some value.

The thing to focus on isn't what OBL might say in some tape, nor on what Jihadabadday23 or whoever posted on the intertubes. The thing to focus on is this: our own assessments of the objective facts as they are available to us indicate that al Qaeda should want McCain to win. What they do want, or what they say they want, or what some al Qaeda peon somewhere wants...well, the weight of such evidence pales in comparison to the evidence actually available to us. McCain is like Bush, and Bush has been a godsend to al Qaeda. America--and the rest of the sane world--will likely be better off if Obama is elected. And that's a fact regardless of what al Qaeda says.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh c'mon, we've already gotten involved in a land war in Asia, so why not try to go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line?

5:42 PM  

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