Sunday, August 21, 2005

Iraq: What To Do?

As things seem clearly to go to Hell in Iraq, we again face the question what is to be done?

Unsurprisingly, those who favored military force from the beginning, and who tend to favor military solutions, tend to think that we should stay. Those who opposed military force from the beginning, and who tend to oppose military solutions, tend to think that we should leave. But these opinions are usually little more than prejudices--that is, the results of pre-judgments--judgments made before the relevant facts were considered.

Problem is, very few people have the knowledge and expertise required to make a useful judgment here. Few of us know enough about such situations, enough about the actual facts on the ground, and enough about our military capabilities to make a valuable decision about this case. And no non-experts have anything like a good guess about the consequences of (a) staying and (b) leaving.

So what we need here is reliable expert opinion. This is what we would usually expect to get from the government. Sadly, we can no longer believe anything the administration says about Iraq. So where to turn?

That's a serious question. Where are we to turn? Anybody know?

I'm beginning to think that staying on is not the right option. (But I'm a non-expert, and, like the rest of you non-experts, I don't really know enough to make a decent judgment here.) The right option would be (or so goes my non-expert guess) to devote more troops and resources until we fix what we've broken. But that, apparently, is not a real option. That would be costly and politically inexpedient, and the Bush administration will not do it.

Since we are not going to do what we are morally obligated to do, we have to ask what the least bad remaining option is: stay in a half-assed manner or leave entirely. For the first time, I'm beginning to think that the latter bad option may be the best option genuinely available to us. Leaving will be bad, but I'm beginning to think that staying (without the troops and resources to do the job right) may be worse.

If things continue in this way, this war will go down in history as one of America's greatest foreign policy failures, and one of our greatest moral crimes.

8 Comments:

Blogger matthew christman said...

The Iraq war is ALREADY America's greatest foreign policy failures and its greatest moral crimes. Even if Iraq turns out to be a peachy little liberal democratic republic (fat bloody chance), the unnecessary death and misery will be neigh on impossible to compensate for unless we give every Iraqi currently living a plane ticket out of Iraq and a seven figure trust fund.

I think that fact that Iraq is, at this point, bound and determined to codify misogyny into its Constitution means that, even if Iraq becomes a Republic, it will be a LESS FREE place for a full half of the population than it was before the U.S. invasion, invalidating any remaining justifications for American aggression.

As for the withdrawl question, I favor it because I simply CANNOT think of any way in which continued American military presence HELPS Iraqis. Unless we're going to send in another couple hundred thousand imaginary soliders (or unless the Universal Soldier has finally been perfected) and force gender equality on them at gunpoint, we'll simply be underwriting a repressive theocracy while providing the sole impetus for terrorist attacks which will continue to kill Iraqis as long as we are there.

8:56 PM  
Blogger Azael said...

Well, there are excellent resources out there if you merely look for them. However, there is an issue here that you seem to be consistently ignoring.

Again - and not to be mean, mind you - I must point out that it doesn't really matter if you, I, the Rand corporation, or just about anyone else on the planet comes up with a spectacular plan for saving Iraq. And that is because the aforementioned persons have zero ability to effect changes such that the spectacular plan will actually be carried out.

You seem to both understand that there are complete incompetents in charge of this whole affair, and yet, at the same time, have this charmingly naive belief that somehow these incompetents will somehow change their stripes and suddenly listen to reason and do things right for a change. Perhaps I'm wrong. Still, it would be interesting to hear your viewpoint on Yglesias' post which seems very relevant at this point.

If your plan depends on the absence of errors, then you've got a bad plan.

And regardless of how you felt about the war before, what *you* are asking for is a flawless execution of some yet thought out plan.

I would suggest that you have a bad plan, myself.

And double the pity we didn't have a plan *before* the occupation.

Sometimes when you screw the pooch, there's nothing you can do to unscrew it. The time to do things right is before you undertake them. Not afterwards when there is darn little leverage.

10:01 PM  
Blogger Tom Van Dyke said...

This Today Show exchange got a little play while you were gone:

MATT LAUER: Don't get me wrong, I think you're probably telling the truth, but there might be a lot of people at home wondering how that might be possible with the conditions you're facing and with the insurgent attacks you're facing... What would you say to people who doubt that morale could be that high?

CAPTAIN SHERMAN POWELL: Well sir, I'd tell you, if I got my news from the newspapers I'd be pretty depressed as well.

Since those on the left reject any news media anywhere right of center as unreliable, it would be impossible to believe otherwise than that Iraq is an unmitigated disaster. There's really nothing to discuss.

7:08 PM  
Blogger matthew christman said...

Meanwhile, the right simply takes as an article of faith the fact that Iraq is a flowering garden of serenity and peace, with that fact being hidden from us by those damned hippy reporters and their "filters."

Why the fuck do you even come here, tvd? We're a bunch of deluded zombies, and you have the Oracle of All Knowledge. What's the point of casting your pearls of insight before us swine?

12:10 AM  
Blogger matthew christman said...

Sorry for the double post, but it's still blowing my mind: every piece of information coming out of Iraq, including the unfilterable figures of Americans and Iraqis killed every day, of party militias supplanting any idea of a unified national military, the continued Sunni rejection of the draft constitution, this is all the self-hypnotism of mindless leftists...and why? BECAUSE AN ARMY OFFICER CURRENTLY IN IRAQ, AND BEING INTERVIEWED ON NATIONAL TELEVISION PROGRAM SAYS THAT MORALE IS HIGH!

Would that we could all have your piercing ability to PROPERLY weight the information we process on a daily basis. Winston, your search for a proper method of evalutating the Iraqi situation is over.

12:21 AM  
Blogger Winston Smith said...

Well, I really honestly do think I might be a tad dim-witted about this stuff. Folks I know on the left are screaming that it's a *fait accompli*...which is what folks on the right were screaming last year about this time... I may be slow, but I have to honestly say that I just can't tell from the information available to me. I've been told in person by seemngly honest and objective soldiers who've returned that most of the country is doing fairly well. And I have a great deal of faith in the power of democracy. On the other hand, it doesn't look good, and we are being lead by people who have demonstrated that they aren't up to the job.

I've been wondering whether people would be so vehement if they had something personally to lose on this. How much money would people be willing to bet about outcomes in Iraq, for example? Personally, I have to say I wouldn't bet much at this point...but if I did, my money would be on a bad but non-disastrous outcome.

11:25 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Veteran's Day is November 11th and I hope that EVERY American will be flying the flag in honor of our troops fighting in Iraq and around the world to preserve our freedoms!

I can even tell you where to get one for free! Visit AmericanFlags.com right now and they'll send you a FREE American Flag. These flags were $19.99, but now they are FREE. You pay just for shipping/handling and they'll ship one to your door. (Actually - I've ordered more than 20 from them to give to my neighbors, as gifts, etc!)

Get your free flag now: **FREE AMERICAN FLAG**

Semper Fi!

Bill Adams

5:19 AM  
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9:49 AM  

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