Thursday, June 18, 2026

WSJ: Is Iran Really a Normal Country?

Doesn't seem to be--but I know ridiculously little about the place.
My (pathetic) understanding is that it's basically composed of a group of people governed by a foreign Islamic apocalyptic cult...
   The Editors make a good point: all sorts of things can happen from here on out. Trump may be right (he often is). He may have some things up his sleeve (in fact, he almost certainly does). He became rich and powerful largely by reading people, exercising advantages, and making deals. For all I know, he's just using the "deal" as a cover story to give CENTCOM an opportunity to compile a list of new targets, get more anti-drone weapons in-theater, reload the VRSs, and clobber them next time Iran gives him and excuse (as they certainly will). A transformative leader might rise to power in Iran. The people might rise up again--with our help this time...all sorts of things might happen...
   People with my degree of understanding about the situation have basically no understanding of it.
   But, of course, it doesn't look good.
   Trump's wild, chaotic swings...he's loony pronouncements about unconditional surrender...his many claims that the war is already over...then that we're about to level the whole country...his multiple announcements that a deal is already done... It certainly sounds like he's in way over his head and just making it all up from day to day. He seems to think that his method of spontaneous tactical bullshitting--so successful at home--will work on the international stage...and on the Mullahs...just seems insane...
   I've always thought that foreign policy was his biggest weakness. Mostly, I worried about him accidentally starting WWIII...I didn't envision this...
   Kinda seems like the Mullahs know our playbook, and realize that all they have to do is not give up. We're not going to send in troops--ergo we can't just take over their country and make them comply...not that sending troops into Afghanistan worked, either...
   Well, I have no real point, I suppose.

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