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Thursday, August 21, 2025

Trump Increases Pressure on Powell to Cut Rates

I know less about this than I do about most things.
I barely even understand the Fed at all.
Two thoughts:
[1] This sounds like a variant of Lysenkoism. Powell is supposed to do two relevant things here: (a) make objective judgments about inflation, etc., and the optimal Fed rate.
(b) set the rate in accordance with these judgments.
Trump wants the rate cut.
Does Trump think Powell is incompetent?
Or does he think he's cheating for the blue team?
Or does he just think he's wrong?
I don't know.
[2] This is the kind of thing Trump often seems to end up being right about.

However, it sounds like a rejection of expert independence.

But it doesn't sound like it's ideological...so...that's something...

An honest disagreement with one side (?) being pig-headed (?) seems to me to be less destructive/dangerous than such a thing based in ideology. (Though, of course, that's not obvious.)

Anyway. I don't deserve an opinion about this. And I don't understand the first-order arguments. So I'm left looking at the thing just in terms like those above. And I don't like what I see from Trump. Though, again, I've been in this situation before, and when I did come to sort of understand the first-order arguments, I discovered, in at least some cases, that Trump's position was reasonable.

So I'm left here with little more than a kind of impressionistic judgment that Trump is probably wrong...but it won't be astonishing if he isn't.

I think this is one way partisan politics comes to loggerheads: few people on either side understand much at all about the disagreement. But they hear their faction's side of the story, and just sign onto it.

A third thought, actually:
Dems will disagree with [2], I'm sure. But they're wrong.
In fact, [2] is a significant source of:
[3] Trump sometimes crashes and burns because he goes with his gut.
Dude has good instincts, and became a billionaire partially by relying on them. I think his post-election freakout was largely based on his reliance on his gut-level response that something was amiss. He was right to some extent--but the evidence suggests that he wasn't nearly as right as he thought he was. There were electoral shenanigans, but not of the kinds e.g. the Leviathan or Scilla or the Kraken or Godzilla or whatever her fans were calling her...claimed there were. There were no Venezuelan satellites or whatever reprogramming voting machines. There are still some legit doubts about the 2020 election. Thing is, few of them have really panned out when investigated--they were legit doubts...they just turned out to be dead ends.

Anyway. For all I know, this is a legitimate disagreement over when/how much to cut the overnight rate (er...that's what they're disagreeing about...right? Jesus, I'm ignorant...) Kinda sorta only understanding the second-order dynamic, and forced to take a side, I'd side with Powell. 
And: this seems like the kind of bull-in-a-china-shop indifference to expert opinion that worries me about Trump.
And my usual concern that the expert class has brainwashed itself with Woketarianism seems inapplicable here.

tl;dr: I don't know.

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