Charles W. Cooke: In the Time of Peak Trump

I think I'm inclined to agree with pretty much all of this.

Trump won, IMO, because (as Cooke and others note) the Dems have ceded the middle. In fact, the American left has lost its collective mind. Trump, by comparison, was the normal option, the guy out there defending common sense--despite his Trumpiness. Basically, we had no real choice. But Trump's standard deviation is high. He has the capacity to do (and, obviously, to say) crazy things.

Anyway, to repeat myself repeating myself: I fear Trump because I don't know what he'll do. But I fear the (contemporary) Democrats because I do know what they'll do.

The safest prediction seems to be: the Pubs will err by hubris. They'll go too far in various ways...and Trump will say and do some stupid shit. The Dems will probably regress to the mean. Eventually the difference between the two parties will be less. I expect the Dems to be competitive again sooner than you might think. Of course the Pubs will also have a more normal candidate by '28. Vance, probably. But if the Dems moderate a bit, and run a competent candidate (e.g. Shapiro) who can plausibly be represented as a centrist, they could win. Hell, they came closer this time than they should have. And Trump fatigue will have set in by then...and that'll count against Vance.

Eh, what do I know?

I have no special understanding of any of this.