Tuesday, December 17, 2024

Post-Election Polling Suggests Reason for Harris Loss

I don't really understand this, honestly.
   The results seem inconsistent to me, and I'm not interested enough to try to disentangle the actual results from the authors' hypotheses about resolving the inconsistency.
   It's too easy to read one's own biases into such stuff. So, e.g., I'd be inclined to think, inter alia, that:
[1] Voters are concerned about "mis-/dis-information"...but many of them recognize that it's a bigger problem on the left than on the right.
[2] The Biden administration was actually counterproductive. Government would be more effective if it just didn't do so much harm.
   But, again, it's natural to reason thusly: I think party P believes and does the following dumb things: x, y, z. So P believing and doing x, y, z is why they lost.
   The Dems have gone crazy (IMO, as you know) and it's hard for me to believe that didn't play a significant role. In fact, I'm surprised and concerned that they didn't lose by more. My inclination is to think it's because they were running against Trump, who naturally and (to some extent) rationally repels many voters. I'd hope that e.g. DeSantis would have won in a real landslide...but honestly I'm not at all sure that would happen.
   Also Harris and Walz were just terrible candidates. Left to guess, I'd guess that the boys/girls/others in the Dem marketing department maybe realized early on that Harris was terrible, and decided to roll the dice on a "vibes" campaign. But I have no idea.

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