RCP: Trump Favored to Win Popular Vote

Everything's still close. NC is closer than I'd like to see it. But the rolling average has Trump ahead in all three Blue Wall states (or does MN count as one of those too?). Betting market aggregate is at 60-38.

   I have every confidence that we'll get at least one more October Surprise from the blues. I do, however, think that they still have limits beyond which they won't go.

   Chatter is that, if the bad Orange Man wins there will be 14th Amendment challenges from the likes of Mark Elias, and a push to get Harris to refuse certification of the vote.

   Frankly, however, I'm more concerned about a Trump loss than I am about a Harris loss. The freakout would be even worse this time since expectations have been engaged and he's so heavily favored. A large sector of the right holds it as an article of faith that the '20 election was stolen*, and they clearly would simply not accept a loss this time.

   The blues are fanning the flames with constant lawfare, resisting efforts to secure the election and correct voter rolls, and anticipatory announcements about delayed election returns. 

* I still don't buy it exactly...but there are plenty of reasons to be suspicious. The right is full of shit to the extent that it claims we know that the election was stolen. The left is full of shit to the extent that it claims it to have been the "most secure election of all time." In fact--so far as I can tell--it was rife with shenanigans and opportunities for worse. Add to this my view, adopted in the wake of Russiagate, that you can't put anything past the Democrats, and...well...again...I don't have knowledge...but I have my suspicions...