David P. Goldman: American Elites Have Squandered Our (Defensive) Technological And Manufacturing Edge Over Russia and China

I'm skeptical of this.

Much of his case turns on the hypersonic weapons differential. The main objection, as I (barely...or mis-)understand it is: the base on which our hypersonic weapons technology rests is much stronger than theirs. They've chosen to fast-track demonstration weapons, whereas we're playing a slightly longer, game: we're on track to develop much better hypersonic weapons. And a delay won't matter. As for nukes: hypersonics have no appreciable advantage over ballistic missiles. As for conventionals: their weapons don't have the capacity to deliver warheads with sufficient accuracy. Ours will. Again: just my quasi-understanding. 

   As for conventional warheads: hypersonic delivery doesn't have a ton of advantages over e.g. Tomahawks and Harpoons. I read (and posted) something this year about the panic over Russian/Chinese hypersonic anti-ship missiles. The piece argued that they weren't worth the cost/disadvantages. Harpoons fly low and merely very fast and bring the hate extremely efficiently. Hypersonics fly, well, hypersonically...but they fly high. Thus they can be detected farther out, which is key to defeating them. 

   Again: just my half-assed understanding.

   I also have some doubts about the chart showing our decreasing development budget. Or, rather: not the chart itself. But I'm under the impression that we don't have to spend as much on development as we used to because so much of it is done with computer simulations. We take amazing weapons (e.g.: B-21, NGAD) from "drawing board" (we might as well say: clay tablet) to working prototypes (as I understand it) fast and cheap now. This is even more speculative and uninformed than the other argument. Kind of a WAG on my part.

   tl;dr: I don't know, but this article doesn't move the needle for me.

   But the author seems to have strong credentials. I'm not really in an epistemic position from which to speak, honestly.