Graham Neary On COVID, The Induction/Stats Errors That Wrecked The Economy...And How The Diamond Princess Case Could Have Saved Us

tl;dr: the decision to extrapolate from 6/689 people on six flights from Wuhan screwed us all.

As for the Diamond Princess: we shoulda taken the case more seriously.

For what it's worth, as I noted here back in April-ish: many conservatives converged on the Diamond Princess case and argued that it was extremely important, and that that evidence was being under-weighed by the emerging expert view. I--eventually--came to believe they were right, as I said in some posts back then that I'm too lazy to look up.

Again I ask: why do conservatives keep being righter about all sorts of things than progressives? (Since: progressives threw their lot in, as a largely political matter, with the experts who were emphasizing much worse-case scenarios)

Something progressives may well be much righter about, however: the back-to-school question. If the events at Carolina are representative, that's going to be a slam-dunk for progressives and teachers' unions, who have been REEEEEEing against going back to school, while the conservative vanguard and majority has been all-in on reopening.