Comparison Of Exit-Strategies From Lockdown In The UK

This is rather more optimistic than I really expected:

The main findings from this research are the following:
• very little gain, in terms of the projected hospital bed occupancy and expected numbers of death, of continuing the lock-down beyond April 13, provided the isolation of older and vulnerable people continues and the public carries on some level of isolation in the next 2-3 months...;
• in agreement with [1], isolation of the group of vulnerable people during the next 2-3 months should be one of the main priorities...;
• it is of high importance that the whole population carries on some level of isolation in the next 2-3 months...;
• the timing of the current lock-down seems to be very sensible in areas like London where the epidemic has started to pick up by March 23; in such areas the second wave of epidemic is not expected...;
• the epidemic should almost completely finish in July, no global second wave should be expected, except areas where the first wave is almost absent....

Seems like we'd be pretty lucky if that turns out to be close to right.