You Will Not Die In A Mass Shooting
posted by Winston Smith at
7:14 PM
Sunday, February 25, 2018
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6 Comments:
The first link is busted, but I suspect the excerpt below is relevant:
Table I. Developmental Stages in Risk Management (Ontogeny Recapitulates Phylogeny)
0 All we have to do is get the numbers right
0 All we have to do is tell them the numbers
0 All we have to do is explain what we mean by the numbers
0 All we have to do is show them that they’ve accepted similar risks
0 All we have to do is show them that it’s a good deal for them
0 All we have to do is treat them nice
0 All we have to do is make them partners
0 All of the above
By Baruch Fischhof
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.365.7425&rep=rep1&type=pdf
Not to be flippant but Newton, Sandy Hook, columbine, this latest one. I think the victims and their families would disagree.
Right...not taken as flippant.
What about:
You're not going to be killed by an Islamic terrorist?
and/or:
You're not going to be eaten by a bear?
"You're not going to be killed by an Islamic terrorist?"
This reply is crucial because you can't use statistical unlikelihood to ignore terrorism if you aren't going to do the same with these mass shootings (and the left-liberal consensus frequently does this).
In fact ignoring terrorism is the far inferior of the too because terrorism's tail risk is heavier by a multiplier in the thousands. See 9/11, which in one event dwarfs the death toll from mass shootings for likely over a century.
It looks you are almost twice as like to die in an airplane or spaceship accident than a mass shooting. On the other hand, if we are this scared of mass shootings, we need to disarm the police. You can't talk about this though. I ruined a family gathering this weekend by talking about relative risk.
https://www.businessinsider.com/gun-death-statistics-assault-mass-shootings-accidents-2017-10
The chances of being killed by an Islamic terrorist are small, not non existent.
The chance so being killed by a bear are small, not non existent. If one goes into an area where bears are, the risk goes up. If one rarely goes into forested regions that contain bears, the risk goes down.
Likewise, the chances of dying in a mass shooting are small, not non existent. If one lives in a country like China or Australia where guns are highly regulated, the chances go down. If you live in a country like the USA where guns are prevelent, the chances go up.
Look at how mass shootings disappeared in Aus when they instituted firm gun laws and outlawed AR15s and the like...they stopped. (defined as four or more victims/deaths).
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