Is The Arctic "Unraveling"?
This does not sound good.
posted by Winston Smith at
10:36 PM
Saturday, April 29, 2017
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3 Comments:
There is a certain dissonance between this post and previous posts about the improbability of worst-case global warming predictions. The early collapse of Arctic Sea Ice WAS a worst case prediction as recently as 10 years ago, when it was made by a researcher at USNO. He predicted a worst case of 2016 for nearly complete loss of summer sea ice. Now that didn't happen, but the coverage really did crash over the last decade, and looks to continue.
Dissonance?
Maybe you're assuming or concluding that I've got some fixed position on all this. But I don't.
Fair enough. For folks in your situation, I strongly recommend this talk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7so8GRCWA1k
It includes an explanation of those worst case scenarios, and how they come into play. This recent blog post may help, too. It turns out the 'arbitrary parameters' in global climate models aren't so arbitrary as all that.
https://www.balloon-juice.com/2017/05/01/how-i-learned-to-love-climate-modeling/
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