Sunday, September 04, 2016

FiveThirtyEight: Trump Creeping up Toward a 30% Chance of Winning

   Today the Now-Cast stands at about 70-30 (there's no permalink to today's Now-Cast, so the info at the other end of the link will change over time.
   Am I crazy? Isn't this a no-brainer? How does that second-rate con man have a 1-in-3 chance of winning the Presidency?
   I do realize that it's hard to recognize your own tunnel vision...and I'm not exactly dispassionate about this...bud damn.


Blogger Aa said...

Because there's a huge chunk of the population who will vote for the Republican because of the R (and he seems to speak to a large group within the Republican base that other publications have touched on extensively).
And yes, there is a chunk who will vote for the Democrat because of the D. I might be in that group but hope I could vote against the D if they were someone like Trump...though the insanity of the Republican party has made it harder so I'm not sure how many knots I'd have to twist into to actually hit the R.

11:40 AM  
Blogger Winston Smith said...

Yeah, after I posted this, that occurred to me.

But takes a pretty serious commitment to the 'R' to support Somebody like Trump...

12:01 PM  

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