Clinton 44-Trump 38?
Maybe
I gotta theory about this stuff. I hypothesize that there are semi-decided voters who think things like "I'm more for Hillary than I am for Trump...but not like twice as much for Hillary as I am for Trump." If the polls started to show Hillary doubling-up Trump, such a person might swing to Trump. This would tend to keep a race closer than it might otherwise be. Roughly, such a person would be thinking about voting in terms of the percentages. You might get a situation in which a person who's more for candidate A than for candidate B might vote like so: A and B are close, vote for A. A gets too far ahead of B, vote for B. A leaves B in the dust: don't waste vote on B (vote some unspecified other way).
I gotta theory about this stuff. I hypothesize that there are semi-decided voters who think things like "I'm more for Hillary than I am for Trump...but not like twice as much for Hillary as I am for Trump." If the polls started to show Hillary doubling-up Trump, such a person might swing to Trump. This would tend to keep a race closer than it might otherwise be. Roughly, such a person would be thinking about voting in terms of the percentages. You might get a situation in which a person who's more for candidate A than for candidate B might vote like so: A and B are close, vote for A. A gets too far ahead of B, vote for B. A leaves B in the dust: don't waste vote on B (vote some unspecified other way).
posted by Winston Smith at
7:22 AM
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