Tim Stanley: Nate Silver Overestimates Obama's Chances

Link

Some cogent-seeming--though rather thinly-supported--criticisms of Silver by one Tim Stanley [edit: mixed with some truly terrible arguments.] It's not a great sign that this guy is a biographer of Pat Buchanan...but he offers some prima facie plausible criticisms of Silver's methods.

(Note: everybody quit saying 'methodology.' The methods you use are your methods, not your methodology. Your methodology is your theory of method...and almost no scientist or philosopher has one; after all, few are methodologists. Most people just apply methods, but don't specialize in critiquing and developing them. Almost every time someone writes 'methodology' they mean 'method.' Gah!)

Also not a great sign that the piece seems a tad vituperative...but, of course, it's the substance that really matters, of course.