Wednesday, October 31, 2012

The Romney Landslide Fantasy

Here's some dude, one Michael Graham, writing in the Boston Herald (.com...), whistling past the graveyard wherein Romney's campaign is, apparently, about to be buried.

One wonders: do these people really believe this stuff? To do so, you either have to be astonishingly poorly-informed, or none too bright, or delusional. Mr. Graham sounds rather like a GOP true believer, as he has convinced himself not only that Mittens is set for a big win, but that Obama supporters believe that their man is going to win big. Neither of these things is true here on Earth.

Our two options are: (a) Obama wins by a narrow margin and (b) Mittens wins by a razor-thin one. The smart money is on (a)...there's about a 73% chance of that one. But that leaves a non-trivial chance of (b). I don't know any Obama supporter who is comfortable. When the consequences of losing are so disastrous for the country, a 23% chance of that happening is way, way, way too big.

Mr. Graham seems to be using Rasmussen polls to prop up his preferences...which is fine if it's psychological comfort in the immediate future that he's looking for. Me, I want to know what's actually likely to happen in the actual world. Which means: no relying on partisan pollsters.

Though Graham is likely to be wrong, he is undoubtedly counting on the fact that, in a couple of months, no one will even remember that he made the prediction. (If anyone even reads his column, which I rather doubt...) He's got about a 20% chance of Mittens winning, and people might actually remember if he does; in that case, Graham would score. That sort of effect makes wacky, long-shot predictions a pretty good bet, actually, for the intellectually dishonest.

However, what Graham writes is stupid. Mittens might win--we know there's about a 20-25% chance of that. But we also know that asserting that he will win--much less by "a mile"--is the utterest stupidity.

2 Comments:

Anonymous Nick G said...

Utterest stupidity? Hmmm the University of Colorado, which by the way hasn't been wrong about an election since 1980, seems to agree with Mr. Graham, Dick Morris, and numerous others. In fact the University of Colorado even correctly predicted the Bush-Gore popular vote vs electoral vote debacle.

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university

Secondly, if you look at early voting statistics the writing is on the wall. Romney will likely get over 300 electoral votes. When you factor in Obama's record, his failed debate performances, and the Benghazi situation, none of this is surprising.

In fact you seem to be the only one surprised that anyone would be saying this. Which either means you are not as smart as you think you are about these things, or you are doing the oldest trick in the book. Make all your constituents feel like the election is so very, very close. Make them think that it could be there vote that makes all the difference in the world. After all if they believe a landslide is coming, why would they vote a t all? It would be a complete waste of time, no?

I applaud your effort sir. However, on November 7th, just like the rest of America your reality will indeed include a President Elect Mitt Romney.

11:32 AM  
Blogger Winston Smith said...

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

I mean...I mean...I...LOOOOOOOOOL....

Oh, man.

Good one, dude.

1:43 PM  

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