A Tough-Oil World

Link (via Metafilter)

So that points to an argument for the conclusion that high oil/gas prices--and the attendant scarcity--are here to stay.

This issue reminds me of the population issue (and they are, of course, related). We have a problem. It is a big problem. It is not going to go away. Band-aid solutions are not going to fix it; they might even make it worse. But we're lucky if even Band-aids get serious consideration.

Have we really entered a world of permanent oil scarcity? My untutored guess is that we haven't--but that we'll continue to chart an oscillating trajectory toward less and less more and more expensive oil.

The time to start fixing the problem is now, while we have time--and oil. To wait until the crisis hits is insane. Sucking every last drop out of ANWR is foolish and short-sighted. We might, of course, have to do so at some point. But the smart course of action now is not to use up our safety net now and hope that aliens will land and give us fusion power plants next year.

The American right seems to have gone from being indifferent to the relevant problems to being downright hostile to solving them. When I was a kid, they seemed indifferent, e.g., to the environment; now they often seem hostile to it. They not only don't think we need alternatives to oil, they seem to hate the very idea of energy sources other than oil (and possibly nuclear). I understand lefties who get teary-eyed about solar--and I'll continue to understand them even if it turns out to be a pipe dream. But I can't understand an in-principle commitment to oil--a commitment that seems to outstrip even the economic ties that the right has to big oil.

Of course the population problem is the major driver of these other problems--not that we can ignore overconsumption by the developed world. If we could bring our population under control, many of the relevant problems would be mitigated. But if you think that solving the oil problem is tough, wait til the population problem can no longer be ignored. It'll be hard enough to get liberals to react sensibly...and I dread the response on the right.