Monday, January 21, 2019

Betfair Odds That Trump Will Leave Office Early

31.75% as of now.
Massive, no?
   Wish I'd have guessed before I looked, because now I don't know what I would have thought. That was dumb. Of course if you look places like the WaPo comments section--and you shouldn't--it's common to find people asserting with absolute confidence that he's as good as in jail already...but talk is notoriously cheap. If all those folks are so sure, they ought to place some actual bets. Funny that they don't, huh?   All you can do if you already know this sort of thing is try to be as honest about your estimate as you can... I guess I'd say...there's maybe more like a 10-25% chance? My point isn't that I know better, but that my estimate is likely off/low. Would they even be likely to spin up the impeachment machine and crank out a guilty verdict at this point before January 2021?
   Also, I kinda expect them to waste time on this collusion snipe hunt instead of going for obstruction. Though...given the brainpower undoubtedly at work on this, they may have already concluded that obstruction isn't promising, and that their best chance is to turn up something new and catastrophic on the collusion front. But, of course, this is me simply making stuff up.
   I have no idea what's going on.


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