Wednesday, December 05, 2018

So You Think You Can President: "Chaos Breeds Chaos"

Jesus Christ.
Here's one test I use: if I could do a better job as president, then we're in big trouble.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

The selloff yesterday wasn't catalyzed by Trump, it was due to weird behavior in the Treasury markets, with the yield curve flattening much more than people were prepared for (there's rumors China was buying treasuries due to the G20 agreement, causing the flattening though). If you read coverage from a reputable financial news source like Bloomberg, or WSJ, that will be the commentary. There was some fading the G20 trade truce because people are still skeptical, but WaPo is mostly talking out their ass. Regarding market volatility since Oct, that has been due mostly to Fed policy tightening into a weak global economy and equity prices that refused to price neither in all year.

If you want to actually see an area where Trump's tweeting did make a dent, look to the oil market. He scared everyone to death with the Iran deal cancellation, then issued waivers at the last second, while shale overperformed production expectations. Then he started tweeting about OPEC in a thin market, ultimately driving price down like 30%. Most people are favorable to this outcome but it at least is clearly a case where the bully pulpit moved markets.

11:44 AM  
Blogger Winston Smith said...

erm...somebody remind me to stop talking about shit I don't understand...

12:58 PM  

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