Thursday, September 27, 2018

Kavanaugh vs. Ford; Dems vs. Pubs

1. I missed the most important parts of her testimony.
2. First thing I saw was some bullshit, irrelevant semi-science about norepinephrine and memory. Super cringey and dumb. Gratuitous pretend science. Just don't.
3. She gave me a very, very, very distinct--yet very, very, very subjective--impression of non-credibility. She just seemed like a bullshitter to me. (But see 1)

1. First and foremost does not want an FBI investigation. Not wanting an FBI investigation seemed to me to be #1 on his Do Not Want list.
2. Either is an asshole or decided to play an asshole on tv today.
3. Was mean even to Amy Klobuchar, the one Dem who was nice to him.
4. Thinks committing the tu quoque fallacy is a good response to the question "have you ever been such a pathetic alky that you blacked out from too much booze?"
5. Handled it badly, but better than I would if I were accused of such things. I'd burn the goddamn Capital building down. I'd completely lose my shit. To my mind it's basically the worst thing you can be accused of--and the accusation never goes away. Barring some bizarre fluke that allows you to disprove the accusation beyond any shadow of a doubt, you're 1/10-1/2 rapist for the rest of your life.
6. If keeping meticulous calendars of all your activities fails to exonerate you, then there's no hope for any of us. I have no idea where I was on Tuesday afternoon of last week.

1. Two reasons I maybe can't be a Democrat anymore:
   A. Cory Booker
   B. Kamala Harris
I've been kinda pro- each of them at some point in the past...but now...I have no idea what I was thinking...
2. I wish Amy Klobuchar wasn't so nice. She should have pressed BK more, and shouldn't have stood for being talked over like that and just generally disrespected. You should disrespect people who are being demagogic assholes...but disrespecting someone who's bending over backwards to be reasonable...that is some bullshit. That was a big strike against Kavanaugh.

1. LISTEN GODDAMN IT NOBODY CARES THAT THE FBI "DOESN'T REACH CONCLUSIONS." They gather evidence. Then the goddamn SENATE can draw the conclusion. If I had heard one more Republican recite this mantra I was gonna drive my ass up to DC the time I made it through rush hour on 66...the hearing would be over. So nothing.
2. Lindsay Graham: I really like that guy. And, though I don't quite see things from his angle on this one, I can glimpse that angle from time to time...and anybody who is seeing things from that angle should be every bit as pissed as LG is.
3. Rachel Mitchell had a great demeanor...though I wasn't always seeing why she was asking what she was asking.

Bottom line:
1. You can't torpedo someone on the basis of unsubstantiated 35-year-old accusations.
2. You can't risk making a semi-rapist one of the Supremes.

Sub-bottom line:
1. If the Dems can win this and win the midterms, they can Merrick Garland the next nominee.
2. Which the Pubs would richly deserve.
3. But I do not trust progressives to protect and preserve the First and Second Amendments if I just absolutely had to flip the switch on this, I guess I'd flip it to confirm Kavanaugh.
4. I'm glad I don't have to make this decision.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don’t want to belabor this, but what could genuinely be achieved with an FBI investigation? It’s an evidenceless allegation from decades ago. They won’t find anything.

The reason why Republicans are pushing back is transparent of course. They don’t want to risk the midterms. But that’s also the reason why Feinstein held on to it, so an investigation would drag the confirmation past the midterms. Both are political, but one involves destroying a mans reputation without evidence and leveraging the goodwill of their constituents (your we can’t risk it comment) for another hit of power.

10:03 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Put it this way. People make a big deal about the preponderance of evidence standard in college sexual assault cases. This doesn’t even come close to meeting that low a bar. There is only Fords obviously unreliable testimony against the testimony of five others claiming it didn’t happen and Kavanaugh’s calendars. You can’t find the collegiate process unjust and think Kavanaugh has been treated fairly.

10:25 PM  
Blogger Winston Smith said...

You're not belaboring it. It's a good point that I keep losing hold of.

But even if the Dems suck and are manipulating Ford, it doesn't mean that there shouldn't be an investigation.

Though...then the other point kicks in. It really isn't likely to find anything.

10:32 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It’s not just that it isn’t likely to find anything, it’s that from all the evidence available (and that’s about all the evidence that would be found frankly), it’s far more likely to be that Kavanaugh is innocent. It would be bordering on malicious prosecution if actually brought to court.

11:34 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm not a big Kavanaugh fan, but I'm m not sure I would like whoever the Republicans come up with to replace him more. If I recall what Grassley said about timelines correctly it normally takes 45-60 days to get to a floor vote. There is plenty of time to do that before the end of the year. Regardless of Dem wins in the midterms, they won't hold the majority until January when Congress reconvenes.

That said. Ford came off as credible that something happened to her. I'm not convinced it was Kavanaugh that did what she said he did. There are several bcases I am aware of where men have been let out of prison because the rape they were convicted of with 100% positive identity from the victimband later DNA evidence showed it was some other guy who did it. That doesn't mean eyewitness testimony and identification is always wrong, but it is unreliable. I know it was him, I'll never forget that face just doesn't don't by itself.

I think he lost his shit and I have seen a lot of commentary that his demeanor was disqualifying, but how else are you supposed to react if you are accused of something like this? His disrespectful treatment of Klobuchar was disappointing, but at least he apologized after the break. She's my senator and I like her. Booker and Kamala scare the bejesus out of me though and unfortunately one of them seems likely to be the Dems candidate at this point. I didn't vote for Trump's first term. I really don't want to be forced to cast a defensive vote for his reelection. I just can't even.

As for the FBI investigation, as the nominee can he call for a further investigation if the majority is obviously against the idea? If the hearing is a job interview, telling the committee how to do it job by requesting the fbi investigation is going directly against the wishes of the people he needs to confirm him and the man who put forward his nomination. I really don't know the protocol for this, but it struck me as asking what looked like an innocuous question that the nominee in particular can't answer, like asking directly about how they would rule on cases.

11:59 PM  

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