Thursday, July 07, 2016

FiveThirtyEight: Trump Has A 22.4% Chance Of Winning

   I don't know why this felt like a punch in the gut. Or a slap upside of the head. Or a kick in the 'nads. Or...well...I don't know what it felt like. Some part of me had allowed myself to become convinced that the probability of a Trump victory was vanishingly small. 
   This is like coming to realize that there's a 22.4% chance of a November eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano or something. Given the outcome at issue, this seems to me like a horrifyingly high percentage.
   (And a Trump election seems to me like a disaster with a kicker, given that I think that the campus left might kick into hyperdrive should this happen. And anti-political correctness will become associated with Trumpian lunacy. There's no room for any subtlety in our public discussions, so it's always either pro- or anti-... I fear that Trump is already becoming the face of anti-PC. If he wins, reasonable people are going to be Polanized, crushed between the crazy right and the crazy left.)


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