Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Headline Junky: Hold The NIE Euphoria

Drum points us to this at Headline Junkie, which seems to me to be a fairly sound assessment of the situation.

One of the many dangers of this administration is that their hyperbolic bellicosity can make sensible folk underestimate some of the dangers they're shrieking about. They have, as we now know, radically exaggerated the threat of Iran, just as they did in the case of Iraq--but that doesn't mean that the Iran situation isn't worrisome and delicate. There beneath all the chest-pounding, distortions and wild-eyed neo-con fantasies about WWIII (or is it WWIV?) is a genuine problem that we need to address in a clear-eyed and level-headed way. Iran did violate the NPT, and violated in a way (that is, by covertly enriching uranium) that makes it pretty darned clear that their intentions are not laudable. This seems to me just to be one of many situations such that we just have to hope for the best for the next thirteen months until we [cross fingers] get some adults back in charge.

I've long been astonished that the first "pillar" of the NPT has survived at all. I'm surprised there aren't more violations, and I won't be surprised if/when non-nuclear weapons states start simply repudiating the treaty. It seems miraculous to me that there has been such widespread agreement by NNWSs to stick by a treaty that seems, objectively speaking, extremely one-sided (in favor of NWSs, that is). But I'm more than happy to be surprised in this case.


Blogger Jim Bales said...


For a different view on the same post of Drum's, check out Bryan Dumka's post at his blog Why Now?.

A related post looks at the language released to infer the level of confidence in the NIE.

FWIW, Bryan is a former USAF linguist (i.e., translator) who spent part of the cold war based in the Aleutians, riding in the belly of recon aircraft flying up and down the edge of Soviet airspace.

7:47 PM  

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