Sunday, August 05, 2007

Today on Chris Matthews:
(1) Can the Dems Possibly Lose in '08?; (2) Brooks: Republicans Hate Bush; (3) Would Another Terrorist Attack Help or Hurt the GOP?

Can the Democrats lose an election??? Can a bear crap in the woods??? Can the pope take communion??? Can I waste a whole day watching Star Trek re-runs???

I mean really. Do these people know anything about American politics? The Democrats can lose any election. In fact, as we've seen, they can even win an election and still lose the office...

But Matthews's real point is that, according to polls, people currently trust the Dems over the GOP on virtually ever single issue and type of issue--including e.g the ability to run the war in Iraq--with the exception of a tie (!!) with regard to which party is most able to conduct the "war" against terrorism. The GOP only has an advantage on e.g. the phony "moral values" issue.

Basically everybody there, including David Brooks, seemed to think that the election was all but over.

If only.

Brooks seemed to have gotten insufficient sleep or what may have been a depressive fit, he suggested that the last few years may have guaranteed the GOP minority status for the next ten years.

According to Brooks, though everybody talks about Democrats hating Bush, Republicans hate him too. Yes, he said 'hate'. "Talk to them in private," he said. "They think he's incompetent." (Those are, I believe, very close to being direct quotes.)

I wonder whether that's true?

I wonder what they'd think if his poll numbers were good? That is, if he were dishonest and incompetent but popular?

Would another terrorist attack help or hurt the GOP?

Hard to say. Of course each party will say that a terrorist attack shows that they are right. Republicans will say that it shows that we need to be STRONG! on TERROR!; Dems will say that it shows that Bush's policies aren't working.

What will most people think?


Two possibilities, I'd guess:

A. People will instinctively regress to relatively juvenile positions like BOMB 'EM! (whoever, wherever, whatever), become more susceptible to loony rhetoric, and gravitate toward candidates accordingly--i.e. Bush & co.

B. It will just act as a kind of opinion amplifier, increasing the intensity of whatever people already believe. Thus, since most people are anti-Bush, it'll hurt the GOP.

So, it'll either help the GOP or hurt them.

Remember, you heard it here first.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

David Brooks did not consider demographics in his prediction. It is more likely that President Bush will be the last Republican President. In ten years there will be fewer white middle class voters and more blacks and hispanics. The demographic changes of the U.S. ensure that the Democratic Party will be the one relevent party.

And no, there are many elections that the Democrats wer incapable of losing. Just look athe congressional district of any member of the Congressional Black Caucus.

8:50 PM  
Blogger tehr0x0r said...

If the Democrats are the only relevant political party I fear for the future of this nation. Not because I think there is some huge issue with Democrats but because if there is only one party the new minorities will be screwed over.

10:18 PM  
Blogger Winston Smith said...

I absolutely agree, t-r0x...though it's because I DO think there are some fairly seriously problems with the Dems. If they became virtually unbeatable I fear that it wouldn't be long before they were intolerable.

9:12 AM  
Blogger lovable liberal said...

Democrats aren't unified enough to be that dangerous! For more, see my new home.

3:50 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm minded of a Will Rogers quote before FDR got elected:

I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat.

3:00 AM  

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