Sunday, December 04, 2005

Invading Iraq: More on the Den Beste Argument

Our earlier discussion based on the Den Beste argument helped, I believe, to focus our discussion in several important ways. I won't list them all now, but I will point out some that are of particular interest to me. So here goes another episode of 4-I's:

It has become clear that one important proposition here is:

(IMA) The invasion of Iraq was (at the time of invasion) more likely to decrease the number/effectiveness of terrorists in the long run than was the killing of OBL et. al. and the (re)building of Afghanistan.

Another important proposition--more important, I believe, is:

(IMC) The invasion of Iraq was (at the time of invasion) more likely to decrease the number/effectiveness of terrorists in the long run than was (what I will call) the more direct, conventional strategy.

Although I'm perfectly happy to discuss (IMA), it seems like it's (IMC) that we should really be interested in, so I'll start there and then if anyone sees any reason to revert to (IMA) we can do so.

What does the more direct and conventional strategy look like? Well, people who know much more about this than I do have much more interesting things to say about this, but, since to some extent we are discussing the question 'what other relatively obvious strategies should we have been considering in 2002?', I think it might be worthwhile to just sketch out some of the other options that came fairly readily to mind at that time. I take the strategy to include e.g.:

1. Pouring far more military resources into Afghanistan than we did, in order to crush all al Qaeda elements in that country, win the battle of Tora Bora in a resounding fashion, eliminate the Taliban, slap the Afghan warlords and drug lords into line, and kill OBL and other important al Qaeda leaders. Aside from the obvious reasons, one reason for bringing overwhelming force to bear in this case is to show the world that attacking us brings immediate and irresistable annhiliation.

2. Pouring massive resources into the rebuilding of Afghanistan. Among the many other reasons--primarily moral ones--for doing this would also be some prudential reasons. This project would solidify the moral authority of the United States and increase the already astonishing amount of good will directed toward us after 9/11 (good will which has, of course, now more than evaporated). It would also give us a stable, liberal democratic ally in the region, on the border of the crucial and volatile Pakistan. (Mr. Den Beste suggested in the previous discussion that such good will was not very valuable; I disagree in the strongest possible terms. Such good will is crucially important from a prudential perspective.)

3. Achieving independence from Middle Eastern oil in order to make it feasible for us to sever our ties with authoritarian regimes, Saudi Arabia in particular. Jimmy Carter tried to explain the importance of energy independence to America 30 years ago and was ridiculed mercilessly. In retrospect, there can be no doubt that he was right. Had we followed his advice, 9/11 would never have happened. Now that achieving independence from Middle Eastern oil has become even more obviously imperative, we might even have to consider loathesome options like drilling in the ANWR and more nuclear power. Those are terrible options, but we've allowed ourselves to be backed into a corner and must now consider them, even if they may ultimately be avoidable.

4. Providing aid to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle Eastern countries to establish secular schools. These schools would be alternatives to the Madrassas. They would introduce the Western, secular idea of liberal education and democratic government into these countries and, from a vocational perspective, help the people of those countries build viable, sustainable (i.e. non-oil-based) economies.

5. Working from outside, with the U.N., to encourage the relevant societies to become more open and liberal. This would include helping them to understand that a secular democratic government need not be anti-religious. This might involve, for example, a massive information campaign conducted through the VoA or some similar organ of the U.S. Satelite television is apparently wildly popular in much of the Middle East, and an extremely well-run, well-funded television channel dedicated to explaining the idea of liberal democracy and multi-cultural society would probably have a significant impact.

6. Eliminating our support for regimes such as those of Saudi Arabia and Egypt which repress their people and do not allow them to express dissent, but allow media outlets to criticize the United States in lieu of criticizing their own governments. Currently we are supporting tyrants who re-direct the rage of their populace against us. But if we no longer need their oil, there will no longer be any need to tolerate this. This is not even to mention the fact that our support of such tyrants is morally inexcusable.

These are, of course, only the most obvious steps. The administration's strategy, as partially represented by the Den Beste argument, is flawed, I believe, because it treats the multifaceted problem that is the Middle East as if it were one single problem solvable by a military "hail Mary." The U.S. seems to have become like the man whose only tool is a hammer, so he treats every problem as a nail. But military problems need military solutions and non-military problems need non-military ones. We needed to use the military not just to defeat OBL et. al., but to vaporize them. There should be a national park at Tora Bora where people can go to see the smudge of ashes on the floor that are the mortal remains of Osama bin Laden, so that people will still go there in a hundred years and, pointing to it, say "The Americans did that." There should also be schools and libraries and highways and water purification plants, and people pointing to them, too, and saying "The Americans also did that."

These are just the obvious alternatives to invading Iraq. I'd bet every cent I have that this strategy would be more likely to work than the invasion of Iraq.

[Forgot to reference the propostions as formulated above: to make the conclusion painfully clear, I think that (IMC) is far from being obviously true, and is, in fact, probably false.]

17 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

As I read your plan I found myself imagining an alternate universe in which this was that plan used (perhaps by President Gore). I imagined what this universe might be like . . . the US not sucked into Middle Eastern quagmire after quagmire, being able to go to the pump without supporting torture, being able to pay our taxes without supporting torture, the arab street deeply impressed with our generosity and awed by our strength, the westernizing of Afghanistan, our social capital skyrocketing, the USA as a solid, reliable force for good.

What a lovely would that would be.

Would that it were so.

12:34 PM  
Blogger Azael said...

Thank "Bob".

Heck, I'd be willing to go into massive debt to make the bet that this strategy was far, far more likely to work than the invasion of Iraq.

1:53 PM  
Blogger Tom Van Dyke said...

I do think you're trying to lay out the situation fairly, WS, but I believe there are other factors:

---9/11 did not make Saddam less of a threat.

One must also accept the proposition that the sanctions regime was failing, however, something that seems heretical to what is now Conventional Wisdom.

The Bush Doctrine never specifically targeted al-Qaeda. Saddam's Iraq openly supported terrorists. That was sufficient. That it was already in violation of its post-Kuwait treaty obligations and routinely butchered its own people was also sufficient in their own right, and although not specifically germane here, was an essential factor.

---Tora Bora was no sure thing. The US could easily have still missed bin Laden, despite a doubling of effort.

---Creating a more pro-US Afghanistan through a more massive occupation instead of co-opting Musharraf was not self-evidently a better strategy. Neither is it self-evident that throwing more money at Afghanistan would have better fought terrorism.

---To posit that energy independence would have prevented 9/11 seems quite a bridge too far. The problem with mixing Islamism and oil is that there are many other customers worldwide. It is the power that oil money brings that's the real worry.

---That Madarasses get their students because they are schools, and not because they are Islamic is not in evidence. Still, offering secular alternatives is interesting, although I would expect them to become magnets (flypaper?) for anti-Western violence.

---The UN is useless except for counting bodies and passing out band-aids.

---Not needing the good will of Saudi Arabia to counterbalance Saddam enables the US to pressure the Saudis to liberalize and stop supporting terror. And there is no percentage in destabilizing Egypt by eliminating our support.


"Another important proposition--more important, I believe, is:

(IMC) The invasion of Iraq was (at the time of invasion) more likely to decrease the number/effectiveness of terrorists in the long run than was (what I will call) the more direct, conventional strategy."


---The meme that confronting Iraq sapped resources away from Afghanistan is not in evidence; as Mr. den Beste points out, there were 18 months between the events. He also points out that liberalization is underway in Egypt, Saudi, Lebanon, and others. Press freedom is also growing in the Muslim world, I believe. Conventional strategy would have been purely reactive.

Tackling "root causes" is tricky and often massively inefficient, as the mixed results of our own social programs have proven. But if the impetus for Islamism is tyranny (and I believe it is), then both realpolitik and moralizing bully pulpitism are insufficient to foster change.

Neither Richard Nixon nor Carter freed anyone. Bush41 and Clinton freed a few people in Kuwait and Kosovo. Bush43 freed 50 million people. What they do with that freedom is still uncertain, but that can't be taken away from him.

Freedom is messy, but has proven less messy in the long run than tyranny. That's a metric you can take to the bank, and the foundation of Mr. den Beste's thesis.

3:38 PM  
Blogger Winston Smith said...

Gotta say I don't see a lot here that matters, Tom.

Much of this comes down to "your suggestion isn't a sure thing," which I, of course, agree with. It's just a surer thing than the ill-considered Iraq invasion.

Saddam wasn't a threat.

Didn't say that Carter freed anybody. Said that 9/11 wouldn't have happened if we hadn't had an I.V. line running from Saudi Arabia into our collective SUV. Pointed out that Carter pointed that out to us.

Carter also wanted to make human rights the centerpiece of our foreign policy. He was ridiculed for it. If we'd have done so we might have made slow progress that would have avoided this whole mess.

Instead Reagan supported Saddam the tyrant, and then we had to go kick his ass.

Carter suggested that we stop supporting tyrants. See, then we don't have to go kick their asses when they tyrannize people we haven't authorized them to tyrannize.

And, again, I've made it clear that I think a humanitarian case for a UN-backed invasion to eliminate Saddam could be made. But that's a different point.

It's crucial in these matters to keep the crosshairs on the dialectical target.

3:53 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"But if the impetus for Islamism is tyranny (and I believe it is), then both realpolitik and moralizing bully pulpitism are insufficient to foster change."

Tom,

First of all, I think this point is only valid 'iff' Islamism = terrorism. I don't know if that's necessarily true, depending upon your definition of 'Islamism'. But perhaps I'm just quibbling with your choice of terms.

The more important point is that I don't see the *causal* connection between tyranny and 'Islamism', and certainly not necessarily between tyranny and terrorism. Quick, who's the biggest tyrant in the world? I would submit that it's Kim Jong Il. He's at least in the running...and how many North Korean terrorists can you identify?

More to the point, during Saddam's reign there was virtually NO terrorism in Iraq, nor did the country spawn any significant number of international terrorists. If you review most of the international terrorist events of the past couple of decades, I think you'll find more of the perpetrators originating in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Pakistan, among others. Nowhere near the top of the list is Iraq. You could make the case that these other nations are tyrannies as well, but I would maintain that they are generally not as oppressive as Saddam's regime. Moreover, the point was made in an earlier thread that most of the 9/11 perpetrators lived in western countries much of their lives and had little or nothing to do with Iraq or Saddam.

So I guess I'm just having trouble understanding a dynamic whereby this largely secular, but immensely brutal tyrant in any significant way contributed to 'Islamist'-inspired terrorism. It just seems like there's a huge lacuna in your attempt to connect the Saddam's regime to any 'Islamist'-based terrorism. If anything, I would expect that his regime would be considered a TARGET for those who dream of puritanical Islamic nations.

This may also be related to my comments on a previous thread about terrorism being solely a tactic, and that it's likely that there are many species of terrorists, each of which needs to be combatted in a different way.

4:56 PM  
Blogger Tom Van Dyke said...

All good points, LC. It still comes down to whether the status quo with Saddam was tenable or acceptable. I think it was neither.

You are correct on the terms. "Terrorism" is code in the West for "militant Islam." This does introduce confusion.

No doubt that Saudi Arabia and Iran are more central to militant Islam than Iraq was. But they were not invadable, nor did they have it coming as Saddam did.

Further, Islamism is a tyrannical ideology, but one with great religious resonance in the Muslim world. Its only antithesis is freedom. Will freedom in Iraq bring about more of the same in Iran and Saudi? Dunno. It has in Lebanon, though. The last time the Lebanese people revolted, Syria killed 25,000 of them. Not this time.

That is significant.

You are right about different strokes for different bad folks. As I just heard Bill Kristol point out on C-SPAN, Afghanistan is about the same size and has similar ethnic divisions as Iraq, and the same strategy produced pretty good results there.

Iraq has not gone so well. But it's by no means obvious that other strategies would have been better. Sometimes a thing is simply difficult, but still not impossible.

True, we rolled the dice on freedom and on purple fingers, but I maintain it is the best and most principled bet.

6:37 PM  
Blogger Winston Smith said...

Well, to say that we "rolled the dice on freedom" is a little misleading.

Bush didn't take us to war to free the Iraqis, but b/c of WMDs. Freedom was a *post hoc* replacement justification.

Also to say we "rolled the dice on freedom" makes it sound like we took some kind of noble shot at the brass ring...when, in fact, we just did something dumb that might...*might*....MIGHT...if we're a whole lot luckier than we deserve to be...turn out to be a non-disaster.

Also re: resources in Afghanistan from above: Yes, there's plenty of evidence we diverted resources. Even if you don't buy that, surely you'll admit that IF we diverted resources, then that was a mistake?

And as for the point that more troops wouldn't make getting OBL a sure thing--surely you see why that's not a good point, right?

7:29 PM  
Blogger Tom Van Dyke said...

If you have evidence that we missed bin Laden because of Saddam, I'd like to see it.

But bin Laden has been dead for all practical purposes since then, and here we all are anyway. So you see why that's not a good point, right?
;-)

Bush didn't take us to war to free the Iraqis, but b/c of WMDs. Freedom was a *post hoc* replacement justification.

WMDs were the legal issue requested by both Powell and Blair. It is to the administration's rue that it was necessary to emphasize that factor, which was only one among many.

I do not put the stock in political rhetoric that you do; however, that the whole deal is called Operation Iraqi Freedom belies your post hoc contention, I think.

Now although that may sound glib (and I suppose it is), the fact remains that if Saddam has not been a murderous tyrant smack dab in the middle of three other Muslim tyrannies, even a Kool-Aid drinker like myself would not have supported his whacking, overdue as it was.

8:41 PM  
Blogger Azael said...

U.S. Concludes Bin Laden Escaped at Tora Bora Fight

'course, this was in April, 2002 on page A1 of the WaPo, so I can see as how you might have missed it, TVD. Got a zillion more references if you want 'em.

In fact, here's one from Sept, 2005 in the NY Times.

Lost at Tora Bora

Or you can go to the CS Monitor

How bin Laden got away

Or you can go to CNN for something that contradicts the contrary articles you are no doubt looking for.

Document suggests bin Laden escaped at Tora Bora


Or you can read the claim from the CIA commander who was on the ground

Exclusive: CIA Commander: U.S. Let bin Laden Slip Away

9:20 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

TVD said:

---9/11 did not make Saddam less of a threat.

One must also accept the proposition that the sanctions regime was failing, however, something that seems heretical to what is now Conventional Wisdom.

The Bush Doctrine never specifically targeted al-Qaeda. Saddam's Iraq openly supported terrorists. That was sufficient. That it was already in violation of its post-Kuwait treaty obligations and routinely butchered its own people was also sufficient in their own right, and although not specifically germane here, was an essential factor.


If I may be so bold, I think this comment beautifully illustrates one of the major differences between the supporters and naysayers of the Iraq war.

"Sufficient" seems to be the key word here, as in: we caught Saddam doing something that clearly qualifies as a casus belli, and we know he's unquestionably a bad guy for a dozen other reasons, therefore it's ok to go to war with him. A lot of the time it seems like the Iraq war supporters are cops going up against the mob: it doesn't really matter what charges you get the mob boss on, the important thing is that you put the guy away.

And this is a not unreasonable approach, especially if you make the assumption (as many hawks did at the beginning of the war) that by putting Saddam away, we'd scare half of our enemies into behaving, and then be able to go after the other half once we were done.

The problem is, we're not cops, and we simply don't have the resources to go after more than one major target at once. Instead, we're perhaps more like a hunter, going into a jungle filled with dangerous animals, armed only with a front-loading rifle. We can fire one shot at a time, and it takes forever to reload, so it is absolutely imperative that we choose the absolute best target, and not merely one for whom we have "sufficient" cause to go after.

12:16 AM  
Blogger Winston Smith said...

Azael,

Thanks much. You saved me from having to round all that stuff up.

Chris,

Nicely put.

6:04 AM  
Blogger Demosthenes said...

Freedom is messy. Unfortunately, what's going on bears only a passing resemblance to freedom, and tyranny often follows the illusion of freedom.

Sadly, Freedom is also poorly defined. Which is unfortunate, because Tom seems to have mistaken the creeping dominance of fundamentalist Islam that the removal of Saddam seems to have opened the door for for actual freedom. The women stoned to death for violating the Sharia rules that Saddam (and the other secular dictators in the region) kept under wraps may well disagree.

Now if Tom is talking about Liberalism, that's a different story, and a term with a much better definition that is far more conducive to rejecting tyranny. Only the most pie-in-the-sky dreamer, however, thinks that Iraq is moving in that direction.

As for your points in the post, Winston, they were well put, and it is clearly a better strategy. The way to defeat Islamic Fundamentalism is to pull the rug out from under it- to deny it the opportunity to exploit the supposed sins of the west in order to justify the religious paranoia that it feeds on. Developing Afghanistan (which was undermined by the buildup and focus shift to Iraq in 2002, not 2003, contra Tom) would have aided that tremendously, as would a strategy of rooting out the hardcore terrorists (to gain credibility) while simultaneously showing the world the best parts of secular America.

Instead, we got the crusade into Iraq, and the simultaneous theocratization of American domestic politics, the two things guaranteed to alienate allies and drive young Muslims into the arms of the jihadists.

2:10 AM  
Blogger Demosthenes said...

One other point: terrorism relies on the response to terrorism for its success. "Credibility" isn't the issue- the issue is whether the terrorists can inspire fear of the governmental response, and thus (they hope) inspire the people to "see the truth" about their governments and rise up against them.

The US military, by definition, cannot succeed in fighting this alone. It must be a tool used surgically and carefully, always mindful of the risks and side-effects of its activities. That Den Beste ignored this element is unsurprising: that the civilian DoD leadership apparently did is horrifying.

2:13 AM  
Blogger Winston Smith said...

Nicely put, Demosthenes.

And nice to have you around.

4:53 AM  
Blogger Tom Van Dyke said...

It might be true that terrorists seek to provoke a disproportionate response by government to swing the people their way, but its central purpose is to relentlessly commit acts so bestial and ruthless that the stronger power loses its will to resist.

5:07 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi, Thank you for having this info on the web. I enjoyed your post. If you may have any interest in
debt consolidation
then I know where you may get your solution. For your comfort, I have enclosed the link, so if needed you can visit the site. Thanks again for your lovely blog. credit

11:01 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Trouve dans cette dynamite satisfaire et loisir tout ce que celles-ci en cherchant !!
video porno telechargement gratuit jeune star du porno dvd porno gratuit sex porno hard video gratuite photo hard porno porno marocain gratuit film amateur alsacien porno film porno pamela anderson video porno gratuite telecharger porno hard gratuit regarder film porno video porno gratuir gay black porno actrice porno nu galerie porno film porno classe x video jour porno porno jeune gay video porno black voir video porno gratuite actrice de film porno video porno de lesbienne gratuite recherche actrice porno extrait toute video porno gratuit video et jeu porno gratuit porno bizarre extrait film porno zoo aria giovanni sex porno mangas hentai porno image porno agadir image femme porno video photo porno gratuit sexe porno asiatique photo porno gratuite couple bi porno gode arabe black porno video porno photo gratuite arabe porno grosse femme black image porno etudiante nu photo simpsons porno gratuit porno hard free kids sex histoire porno extrait video porno francais telechargement jeu porno italian sex porno video mangas porno telecharger free porno blog image gratuit porno porno star hard free long samplers porno hard film porno extrait gratuite flim porno fr video francais gratuit porno video ligne amateur porno video casting porno extrait de film porno asiatique video porno x movie xxx porno gratuit clip porno brasile casting sexy porno doujin porno francais dragon ball vieille femme porno gratui x men porno skyblog porno amateur gratuit movie x porno voir clip porno porno casting x video amateur gratuite porno liste blog porno porno org gratuit porno xxx gratuit extrait and porno blog video porno skyblog sur porno galerie homme gratuit porno gay beaucoup porno gratui filmes porno gratuit chat porno gratuit monstration porno gratuit sex porno clip video porno galerie sous jupe photo porno grosse femme lesbienne porno hot photo porno homme gay gratuite porno gratuit grosse annuaire gay porno film et photo amateur porno gratuit gay boy video porno femme mature sexe porno cul femme nu porno archive photo gay porno photo porno galerie film porno divx porno mature grosse galerie de photo porno gay film divx porno video sex porno lesbienne lilms porno regardac gratuis porno gay mature porno hentai site groups.msn.com sexo porno com recherche acteur porno gay sexe porno gratuis porno gratuit femme video porno lolita porno camera cacher agadir porno lolita russe accessoire pour instrument de musique parole jean jacques goldman musique puisse part mv30 instrument musique partition de musique de kyo musique du film la soupe aux chou musique film dis oui separation parole et musique ampli basse instrument de musique partition musique flute telechargement musique et film telechargement musique mp3 gratuit instrument de musique arabe transformer musique en mp3 partition musique folklorique polonaise telecharger gratuit musique mp3 partition musique classique parole de musique anglais musique gratuit mp3 musique et partition musique film d horreur musique parole parole musique bob marley telechargement gratuit musique film musique du film pour la peau d un flic partition musique classique telecharger telechargement de musique mp3 gratuite ecoute de musique de film partition musique de la chanson le chiffon rouge parole musique bsb telecharge musique mp3 fm transmetteur ipod mp3 cd minidisc radium mp3 codec codec mp3 free winamp converter mp3 to midi telecharger encoder mp3 conversion mp3 cd audio cd audio en mp3 sonnerie portable rap mp3 mp3 cle usb 2 to mp3 converter cle mp3 usb sonnerie mp3 austin codec mp3 lame meilleur prix sue lecteur mp3 creative creer des cd mp3 converter to mp3 freeware mp3 encoder autoradio mp3 usb et lecteur carte sd mmc cd 652usmp roadstar extraire cd en mp3 mp3 telecharger gratuit britney spears pilote cle usb mp3 lecteur mp3 1go cle usb autoradio mp3 lecteur dvd port usb mp3 cd maker lecteur mp3 cle usb 512 mo zouk mp3 telecharger gratuit telecharger convertisseur mp3 gratuit lecteur mp3 a bon prix codec lecteur mp3 mp3 cle usb 256 baladeur mp3 encodeur mp3 mp3 et wav convertir dvd en mp3 wav to mp3 converter mp3 musique createur converter wav mp3 typhoon lecteur mp3 wma mp3 wav converter convertir music mp3 baladeur mp3 256mo encodeur encodeur mp3 wav decodeur mp3 wav encodeur decodeur mp3 wav musique son mp3 gratuit convertir ram en mp3 jvc autoradio mp3 convertir fichier midi en mp3 kenwood kenwood autoradio kenwood mp3 wav mp3 encoder autoradio adaptateur baladeur mp3 encoder wma mp3 achat musique mp3 alt wav mp3 wma ogg converter v3.3 lecteur mp3 autoradio accessoire son convert wav mp3 convertire mp3 en wav convertir mpg mp3 autoradio cd mp3 occasion convertir un fichier mp3 en wav encodeur fichier en mp3 chargement musique mp3 digital and mp3 and player mp3 player tool autoradio pioneer cd mp3 autoradio cd mp3 usb ca 5555 firmware update neo mp3 player simply key telecharger logiciel compression mp3 achat baladeur mp3 512 mo autoradio cd aiwa cdc mp3 mp3 media player codec mp3 pour windows media player autoradio cd mp3 cdx r3300 sonnerie mp3 newport beach compatible download free mp3 autoradio cd mp3 avec syntoniseur rds autoradio sony cd mp3 mp3 usb 2 calogero mp3 free download compression de fichier mp3 convertir and wav and en and mp3 convertir le format mp3 en wav compression wma en mp3 comment changer real player mp3 baladeur lecteur cd mp3 autoradio cd pioneer 7400 cd mp3 ecran 3d auto and radio and mp3 mp3 player dvr free recorder mp3 radio blaupunkt autoradio cd mp3 blaupunkt audio baladeur cd mp3 porno gratuit a telecharger telecharger gratuit emule telecharger yahoo messenger telecharger livre gratuit telecharger gratuitement music mp3 emule video telecharger film gratuit divx telecharger jeu and gratuit and a and telecharger comment telecharger musique telecharger musique sur emule logiciel pour telecharger divx telecharger musique sur internet telecharger gratuitement msn 7.5 jeu de tarot a telecharger telecharger codec divx telecharger musique gratuite mangas emule telecharger point com telecharger les sims 2 telecharger film dragon ball z telecharger msn 7.2 film gay a telecharger telecharger msn 7.0 plus gratuit telecharger msn plus 3 gratuit objet pour les sims 2 a telecharger telechargement video film msn plus telecharger gratuitement telechargement musique et film shareaza graver telecharger gratuitement kazaa ecouter musique sans telecharger sims 2 telecharger telecharger version 7.5 msn objet telecharger gratuitement sims 2 telecharger gratuitemant kazaa telecharger gratuitement shareaza 2.1.0.0 telecharger gratuit le jeu sims 2 telecharger sonnerie animal telecharger antivirus avast coiffure telecharger sims 2 telecharger gratuitement msn version 7.5 telechargement film emule de telechargement de film et musique gratuit video sex a telecharger gratuitement telecharger extrait video porno habit sims 2 telecharger jeu de carte a telecharger gratuitement telecharger gratuit kazaa kazaa lite 01net telecharger music telecharger mp3 gratuit telecharger gratuit film dvd francais telecharger msn beta 7 fr telecharger dracula film x telecharger and musique and gratuitement and telecharger music telecharger nero 6 gratuitement telecharger chanson abdelhadi belkhayat gratuitement telecharger gratuitement musique format mp3 telecharger logo pour telephone telecharger plug in java tm 1.4.0 03 telecharger steam fr telecharger emule gratuit fr telecharger nouvelle version emule gratuitement musique rap telecharger gratuitement telecharger matrix audio dvd logo a telecharger gratuit telecharger graveur dvd multimedia.ftpk.net telecharger msn 7 5 beta version francaise gratuit logiciels.htm telecharger logo et musique sur portable motorola telecharger java virtual machine 3809 mature fuck hard mature mure salope photo gratuite photo de blacks mature mature porn x free movies free porn movies mature femme nu et mature photo mec mature nu homme mature nu mature and nu mature video site groups.msn.com mature fuck dogs photo male mature gay nu nylon porn and mature homme mature nu gay sexe first anal mature free video mature fuck group mature black cock femme mature grosse sexe black mature black cock mature mature and video photo nu de femme mature sex lesbienne mature belle africaine mature mure mature histoire coquin couple mature photo porno femme mure galerie mure gratuite sexe photo femme mure mature in lingerie mature big busty blonde best mature movies site pute mure rencontre avec femme mure amatrice mure lesbienne mure mature babe asian photo femme mure nu gratuit asian big tits mature femme mure x sexe mature femme russe mature ladies pussy beurette mure teen and mature movies logiciel architecte 2d logiciel fichier mix logiciel gestion stock alerte sms logiciel mac jardin logiciel and mailing and fax and gratuit logiciel multi webcam logiciel pour cree de la music logiciel architecte freeware telecharger logiciel micro mix logiciel telecharger plus vite logiciel faire part de mariage logiciel 3d free installation logiciel webcam logiciel 3d en francais logiciel architecte studio expert cad 2005 gratuit logiciel k tv logiciel gestion webcam logiciel de creation 3d logiciel et pilote webcam creative logiciel fichier partage telechargement gratuit dernier logiciel partage fichier logiciel windows xp gratuit logiciel and francais and reparation and windows immobilier logiciel logiciel gratuis cao crack logiciel gestion immobiliere logiciel msn plus logiciel voir m a bloquer msn messenger logiciel pour telechargement de la musique gratuitement telechargement de logiciel de gravure gratuit logiciel architecture amenagement 3d logiciel gravure diaporama frontpage 2003 microsoft logiciel cd rom logiciel de cartographie gratuit son logiciel logiciel diaporama musique logiciel facturation garage auto logiciel ciel solution logiciel de gravure vcd gratuit logiciel saisie math logiciel pour gerer son compte logiciel ciel gestion logiciel gratuit diaporama logiciel creation gif gratuit logiciel adi math logiciel crack mot passe logiciel adi anglais logiciel langue anglais chatte mure femme mure sexy sexe le gros cul de femme mure mure nu gratuit foto femme mure gratuit femme mure et mature femme mure nu tres mure avec jeune non payant photo sexe mure creme and recette and mure jeune femme mure sex gratuit mure amatrice gratuite mure vagin femme nu mure libertin mure confiture gelee mure tavail porno pours femme mure et adresse galerie femme mure gratuit galerie mure gratuit sex et porno femme mure gratuit video mure salope vieille charrue femme mure mature .com mure gratuit .com femme mure erotique gratuite 48 54 ans photo sex gratuit vieille femme porno picture vieille femme video porno tres vieille femme vieille chatte en chaleur photo de grosse vieille vieille salope .com vieille maman mature vieille petasses folie sex vieille cochon porno photo and and vieille and porno sex vieille pute porno vieille grosse vieille chatte salope vieille ecran telecharger vieille femme pute sexe photo femme mure vieille gratuit gros sein vieille pute gratuit sexe vieille femme gratuit rencontre avec vieille femme fond d ecran en vieille femme mature vieille old mature ladies mature facial galerie histoire baise mature illustree nasty mature pic mature busty cum mature free sample mature fat ass mature nl movies sexe mature femme russe moms mature galerie photo pornographique femme mature galerie mature nylon fuck her virgin ass mature pic gallery mature babe asian xxl femme lesbienne mature pilues sur chatte mature sex lady lady mature amateur mature ladies boys mature and plumper and galerie virgins first fuck gratuit belle femme mature mature sex pics paradise movies mature mature mom cum splendid hotel ile rousse teen virgin vagina free virgin porn trailors lesbian porn virgin real virgin defloration girl hot virgin extra oliva virgin leo body naked virgin billet bateau nice ile rousse automotive island u.s virgin image rousse nu station les rousse russian sample virgin russian virgin porn young virgins getting fucked chalet vacances loisir rousse mary picture spanish virgin belle rousse nu virgin touch hentai doda i pl site strong virgin tiny tit virgin asian virgin young grosse cochon gratuit image de grosse femme nu baise avec des grosse bite grosse and bite grosse salope defoncee grosse cochon grosse cochon 18ans grosse lesbienne plus grosse bite 17 ans grosse chien photo femme laides et grosse belle grosse salope photo grosse chatte poilue gratuite grosse x grosse cochon sur bite grosse and pute tres grosse bite grosse poitrine celebrite grosse cul vieille grosse suceuse de grosse queue grosse pute arabe grosse femme toute nu jeune grosse cochon grosse chatte xxx cul de grosse salope sexe grosse fesse grosse cochon 91 vieille mature grosse gratuit salope grosse gratuit grosse et grande femme poilue photo gratuite concours grosse queu veille et grosse mamie sexe photo de mec a grosse bite sexe grosse gratuit peau grosse caisse peintes sexe gratuit grosse grosse bite pd black sexe grosse sein grosse queu poilu gratuit de grosse bite mr grosse bite grosse queu noire petit cul grosse bite vieille marocaine grosse salope beurette poilue grosse femme faire sauter grosse bite gratuit grosse bite petit cul extrait video grosse salope femme grosse poilue black grosse grosse and bertha galerie des femme mature mature women mature photo gratuit mature femme photo sex mature chatte vieille mature sexe mature avec jeune gratuit de femme mature photo gratuite femme mature mature nylon mature ass mature have sex old mature sex lady sex mature mother tres salope gratuit mature mature movies free mature sex mature vieille mature porno sex mature mature woman femme mature sex femme mature galerie photo sexe mature femme phtos sexe mature sexy cum mature photo amateur mature mature with young boys menagere mature sexy photo gratuite mature amateur facial porno mature sex sexy mature site groups.msn.com mature sexy site groups.msn.com fucking women mature mature uniforme sexy mature gratuit porno naked amateur mature x porno femme mature older mature women porno mature espagnol free pics mature women young fuck mature archive porno mature women nude mature salope amatrice gay young with mature horny mature women salope et mature gros sein femme sexy et mature mature and young boy video telechargemen musique gratuite top musique kazaa musique gratuite telechargement and musique and gratuite ecouter musique roxette musique ecouter cours musique musique gratuite telecharge musique telecharger and musique and musique mp3 gratuit yahoo musique musique indienne telecharger musique ligne telecharger musique gratuite sur internet ecouter musique rnb telechargenemt musique gratuite ecouter la musique francaise musique midi gratuite martiniquaise telecharger and musique and telecharger musique gratuite telecharger clip musique musique telecharger partition musique gratuite musique partagee musique a ecouter en ligne telecharger musique chanson logiciel pour ecouter de la musique musique militaire clip musique vente lecteur mp3 baladeur mp3 fm 128mo baladeur mp3 dictaphone juke box logiciel convertisseur wma mp3 baladeur mp3 mpman convertisseur wma mp3 gratuit mp3 rap us telecharger mp3 telecharger musique mode mp3 mp3 wma prix mp3 convertisseur and mp3 and midi convertir wma mp3 convertisseur mwa en mp3 panasonic sv sd100 baladeur mp3 avec telechargement atrac3 mp3 convertir convertisseur wav vers mp3 telecharger mp3 wma convertir wav en mp3 ipod baladeur lecteur mp3 convertisseur cd mp3 gratuit convertisseur mid mp3 telecharger and musique and telecharger and mp3 and gratuit convertisseur ogg mp3 encoder mp3 telecharger and musique and musique mp3 gratuit logiciel lecteur mp3 music mp3 converter mp3 mp3 convertir ram convert mp3 kt tunstall download mp3 plugin mp3 pro encoder en mp3 pro convertir mp3 en mp3 pro arab song mp3 download lecteur minidisc mp3 sony lecteur mp3 sony nw e95 kaleidoscopio mp3 voce download download waltz mp3 lecteur mp3 multimedia creative nomad juke box zen xtra 60 go telechargement de musique au format mp3 cd mp3 convert mp3 pro v.1.1.0 thompson mp3 pro convert mp3 to cd lecteur enregistreur dvi mp3 sony lecteur mp3 256 lecteur mp3 original lecteur mp3 multimedia download constantine mp3 mpc mp3 convertir mp3 and gratuit and telechargement musique telechargement and mp3 and gratuit and musique convert cda mp3 download cerrone mp3 convertisseur and wav and mp3 steinberg mp3 pro download free music mp3 convert real to mp3 telechargement chanson mp3 gratuit convertir des fichier en format mp3 lecteur mp3 creative 256mo lecteur mp3 philips key 015 convertir mp3 vers midi telechargement gratuit mp3 rap telechargement mp3 gratuit et legale mp3 to midi 256mo baladeur mp3 usb telechargement mp3 corneille gratuit lecteur mp3 256mo rechargeable decodeur and mp3 convertisseur mp3 vers midi enregistrer au format mp3 musique gratuite recentes mp3 freeware conversion midi mp3 musique celtique mp3 gratuite encodeur fichier mp3 midi lecteur mp3 philips exp 203 transformer format mp3 son au format mp3 midi 2 mp3 musique midi mp3 driver lecteur mp3 samsung mp3 son midi logiciel mixage mp3 dj midi mp3 transformer mp3 fichier midi gratuit tele charme musique mp3 rap baladeur mp3 256mo fm baladeur mp3 et tuner fm lecteur mp3 ogg baladeur mp3 fm go lecteur mp3 usb 128 fm mix ambient 128 mp3 free convertir fichier mix mp3 transformer rm en mp3 juillet avalon mix mp3 lecteur mp3 fm usb baladeur mp3 256 fm usb baladeur mp3 512mo fm lecteur cd mp3 vcd baladeur mp3 fm 40 go mp3 fm baladeur ecouter chaabi marocain format mp3 maintenent compresser musique au format mp3 lecteur mp3 fm 1gb lecteur mp3 dictaphone fm lecteur portable cd cdr mp3 tuner fm lecteur mp3 audiokey fm comment gagner lecteur cd mp3 transformation fichier en mp3 bossa electrica mix mp3 transformer des fichier en mp3 lecteur cd mp3 expanium exp 211 lecteur mp3 radio fm 20 go h b conversion de fichier audio en format mp3 baladeur mp3 fm iriver 890 diviser un fichier mp3 telecharger des musique au format mp3 gratuitement mp3 index of mix mp3 couper cut cutter blade mp3 encoder logiciel graveur mp3 gratuit lecteur mp3 baladeur hp livre graveur cd dvd mp3 son couper fichier audio mp3 mp3 free downloading music music mp3 arabe convertisseur de musique mp3 en wma telecharger des mp3 gratis bruitage mp3 gratuit music mp3 ru digital mp3 player baladeur lecteur mp3 convertir and le and wma and en and mp3 wave to mp3 encoder convertir fichier wma en fichier mp3 encoder mp3 cd guide d achat lecteur mp3 tychonic lecteur baladeur mp3 download mp3 gratuit music mp3 free wma mp3 encoder mp3 chargement gratuit baladeur mp3 512 baladeur lecteur mp3 baladeur mp3 sony baladeur lecteur mp3 achat lecteur mp3 avec batterie logiciel mixage mp3 gratuit convertir wma mp3 free logiciel graveur baladeur mp3 gratuis players baladeur lecteur mp3 logiciel lire mp3

1:27 PM  

Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

<< Home