Monday, October 24, 2005

Just for the Record: My Position on Iraq at Time of Invasion

Not that it really matters, but, since it's come up in comments so often of late, my position on Iraq at the time we invaded was that we shouldn't go, and that citizens should actively oppose the war. Although I'd wanted Saddam deposed since Gulf War Episode I, and although I thought that the humanitarian case for war was strong, I opposed the war because of my strong opposition to the way the war was "justified"--or, rather, rationalized.

As evil as Saddam was, I thought that the greater danger was the threat to American democracy posed by the morally reprehensible rhetorical and political tactics of the Bush administration. And since I still then considered America to be the world's best hope for justice, I concluded that the harm done to America, to democracy, to international law, and to the world was likely to be greater even than the great good I expected to come from destroying Saddam.

The lies, the demagoguery, the militarism, the disdain for the judgment of the people and for the democratic process... In the end I split with pro-war liberal hawks not because I did not think that destroying Saddam was a worthy goal, and, to my shame, not because I thought that the cost to Iraq would be too great, but rather because I thought that the cost to American--and, hence, world--democracy would be too great.

My biggest mistake--and I think this has come out in discussions with Matthew Christman and Azael--was to underestimate the harm that would befall Iraqis by overestimating the competence of the administration and overestimating its commitment to Iraqi democracy. I really thought that they were going to do it right once they started it. I do now think that I should have seen that this was unlikely, and opposed the war on these grounds, too. (I still do not agree that this was a conclusion that all rational, well-informed, well-meaning people should have drawn at the time--but that's a different subject.)

But I still stick to my original grounds as sound reasons to oppose the war. I would be willing to sacrifice a great deal to establish a sane government in Iraq. One thing I am not willing to sacrifice is American democracy itself. And I still believe that the health of our democracy was on the line. Consequently, I think that we now have the worst possible outcome: American democracy took the hit--we allowed ourselves to be manipulated by the administration and its cabal of lackeys (or, perhaps, a cabal and its administration lackeys) despite the fact that this manipulation was fairly obvious at the time--and we still probably aren't going to see a sane government in Iraq.

(Incidentally, I don't think that these conclusions, either, should have been obvious to all rational, well-informed, well-meaning people. It took me quite awhile to figure all this out and articulate it with relative clarity. I was still unsure what I thought until a few weeks before the invasion.)

The situation is, of course, worse when one reflects on the fact that it is not clear that this administration was even legitimately elected. But that's a different tale of woe, one I've gone on about too many times already.


Blogger matthew christman said...

Well said, Winston. There's nothing there that I disagree with. My only remaining beef with liberal hawks is with those who STILL refuse to admit any errors.

2:36 PM  
Blogger Tom Van Dyke said...

I'm not one for trading blog links, but since this one knows ol' reliables Drum and Yglasias better than I do, there it is.

Iraq will turn out to be worth it or not. It's getting worse or it's getting better. It will become self-governing and unthreatening, or descend into civil war. My own epistemologically-challenged mind cannot be certain of anything at this point, so I continue to listen to both sides. The elections and the change of tone of the Arab League are to me significant, tho.

5:53 PM  
Blogger Winston Smith said...

Thing is--and I've made this point a zillion times before: RESULTS DON'T MATTER WHEN YOU ARE ASSESSING THE RATIONALITY/MORALITY OF AN ACTION.

What matters is the intentions, and whether the action APPEARED TO BE RATIONAL given the information available when it was undertaken.

Even if Iraq turns out well, it was a bad decision. It wasn't crazy. It wasn't insane. It wasn't evil. But it was bad. Very bad. A reasonable person would not have undertaken the invasion given the evidence available to us at the time.

I don't know how things are really going over there, and I hope hope hope you are right, Tom. But even success won't make the invasion smart or right.

8:43 PM  
Blogger Jim said...

WS states "I would be willing to sacrifice a great deal to establish a sane government in Iraq. One thing I am not willing to sacrifice is American democracy itself."

Let me add, "Hear hear!" This is most certainly sufficient grounds to oppose the invasion.

But I must ask, if the decision to have the UN inspectors withdrawn and invade Iraq was not evil, what circumstances would have been neccesary for that decision to have been evil?

10:33 PM  
Blogger Tom Van Dyke said...

I'm trying to be a good guest, O My Host. Trying hard. I take my cues--if you decline to respond to something I challenge, I don't insist.

I'm a stranger in a strange land--if we're discussing utility, debate is in order. If it's morality, then discussion is called for.

Philosophy, political philosophy, morality? (Theology is off the table, I think, by mutual agreement.)

I honestly don't know which, even after all this time of trying to get to know you.

You set the terms, and it would be boorish of me, on your blog, to speak my language instead of yours.

Gimme a clue, mate. My regard for you will impel me to comply, even if it involves accepting a permanent hall pass.

(Me, I think WMDs were litigated in the last election, and WMDs 24/7 leaves room for nothing else.)

10:35 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...



Despite my high regard for your mind and reasoning, I'm not sure I can get onboard with extreme deontology.

If you mean UNFORESEEN, ARBITRARY or *LUCKY* results, maybe. But aren't FORESEEABLE RESULTS part of one's moral calculus in deciding yes or no on some particular undertaking?

I agree with your position on the war, and the seminal posting for this thread was spot on. But Tom makes a good point when he says: "If we're discussing utility, some debate is in order".

Again, my reckoning is I'll come down on the same side of the debate as you there; maybe I'm being an ass, but perhaps that comment by you about results was a bit, say, sloppy?

11:31 PM  
Blogger Winston Smith said...

No, my comment above was ALOT sloppy. You are exactly right. I meant *actual* results, not *forseeable* results or *intended* results. I count intended results as a part of the intention. But you're dead right on that and I appreciate the clarification.

I appreciate the effort and will try to write something clarifcatory--but you're being too gracious by letting me set the terms just because I know the password... I meant to assess the decision in a relatively ordinary way--the way we'd assess the action of an individual. What did he intend to do? Was he honest about it? Was he rationalizing in order to gain for himself? Was his decision responsible? Did he exercise due care in his reflections? etc.

I do thank you for leaving out theology, mostly because I don't know anything at all about it. But I don't have any fancy or technical conception of moral evaluation in mind when I hold forth about the invasion.

So sting away, oh gadfly.

10:32 AM  
Blogger Azael said...

Hmm. I'm unclear as to how I missed this in your RSS stream. My apologies.

First, let me thank you for providing this post. It helps me understand your position.

You bring up interesting points of philosophy that I am unable to judge, given a different background and education. But it appears that there are two different issues here. The first, I would characterize as "The path to hell is paved with good intentions" - i.e. this is the characterization of what someone was acting rationally and on good faith. The second is the "reasonable person" argument which is presupposing that any random person who was well informed would have been reasonable in reaching the conclusion they did based on the available information.

To the first, I can only point to countless personal incidents which show that, while maybe a moral defense, is something my mother and father never accepted when I provided this as an excuse. Yes, it would soften the anger, it would perhaps explain the blind eye I was turning towards whatever matter at hand, but when the consequences are bad, it's not an argument that seems to hold much water - even when used in interpersonal relationships and not inside any punitive relationship. Regardless of whether this is considered to be a sufficient excuse of behavior, there are the actual consequences to be dealt with. Yes, the person may have had the best of intentions, but the results were catastrophic and - given the overwhelming evidence we have on this particular issue - the person must reevaluate their position with respect to this evidence. In the case of TNR fellows (Beinart, et al), this is not the case. The good intentions justify all actions - regardless of the cost or results. There has been no reevaluation, no discussion nor debate. Rather, there has been a series of attacks against those that - despite having equally good intentions - got things right.

To the second issue - i.e. whether the "reasonable person" theory is justified - I believe that is a harder issue to discuss. It's quite clear now that there was a very sophisticated, very well engineered disinformation campaign carried out at the highest levels of our government. For example, take the case of General Shinseki. Here is an extremely high level officer, someone with direct experience in the messy art of occupation. Someone who really knows of which he speaks. In testimony before congress - testimony that was well publicized due to the controversy it stirred up - he stated that the troop estimates that Wolfowitz, et. al. were making were off by several hundred thousand troops. Using estimates well known from past occupations, the estimate was that we would need 500K troops in the occupation. A number which is clearly impossible for the US to muster - under any circumstances. In addition, during the run up to the war we were subjected to a number of high profile foreign policy figures describing the war as a very bad idea - from a number of perspectives ranging from Scowcroft to George HW Bush to Zbigniew Brzezinski. In the interest of brevity, I won't make a complete case here, but even Colin Powell's famous speech before the UN Security council was shot down by such notable figures as Nobel Peace Prize recipient Mohamed ElBaradei. Then there's the whole inspections done before the war started which turned up absolutely nothing...

Again, I can go on an on and on about the evidence that was known and well publicized before the war, but this isn't the real point. Your assertion is that a reasonable, well informed person could have come to the conclusion that the invasion of Iraq was well justified and the correct thing to do. I contend that it was not based on this evidence.

The only way that a reasonable and well informed person could have come to this conclusion is that they were duped by a sophisticated and extremely well run propaganda effort to sell the war. People were scared after 9/11 and this administration used that fear to give emotion to their ginned up evidence and now obviously fraudulent proofs. Could someone who was well informed be duped by this campaign? Yes. Does that excuse this person now that all the facts overwhelmingly show that there wasn't a shred of evidence supporting the invasion? Absolutely not.

Regardless of whether the person was duped or not, the person should have known what was going on. There was more than enough suspicious evidence, evidence which was immediately debunked by true experts, testimony by experts in occupation and planning which directly contradicted the administration, as well as a coercive inspection regime which clearly showed that the charges against Saddam were completely baseless (re: WMDs, not his crimes against humanity).

That there has not turned up a shred of WMDs, nor any connections to Al Qaeda, nor any threat to the US what so ever should give this "reasonable, well informed person" great pause as to how reasonable and well informed they actually are. As they say, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice...

And so your vitriol thrown against Atrios seems to me to be completely unjustified. People should have known. All the evidence was available before the invasion. And those who refuse to see it now will only let another disaster happen again - whether that be Syria, Iran or North Korea.

Your blog sports the saying "the sleep or reason begets monsters" and that's precisely what I think the liberal hawks did. They let their good intentions - intentions that are truly honorable and morally justified - overrule their reason. They let their emotions get in the way of their reason and - willingly or not - they turned a blind eye to the evidence and pleas before them. This is not honorable, in my opinion. Worse, they have attacked those who got things right. They are actively working to - in their words - exorcise and purge these people from the democratic party. They not only believe they are still right - despite all the evidence to the contrary - they are on a campaign to demonize and discredit those who were not so handicapped. This is wrong and no amount of good intentions or well meaning mistakes in missing the evidence can justify these actions.

As Matthew Yglesias says, we need a serious debate about the future of humanitarian intervention. TNR fellows Beinart, et. al., are not interested in a debate. They are interested in purging based on blind ideology - however well intentioned. This is bad for everyone and - as Matt says - the longer it goes on without serious discussion, the worse it will be for liberalism and the idea of humanitarian projects such as Darfur and others which await us in the future.

Again, I thank you for this post and hope that this rather lengthy comment in reply isn't a serious faux pas.

5:15 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey, excellent website. A great Iraq resource is Deaths in Iraq. It breaks all of the casualties down by age, race, branch of the military, country, etc.

8:04 PM  
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