Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Somebody Should Be Representing Likely Economic Costs Of Lockdowns Like We Represent Pandemic Data

The curves we're shown don't help much with decision-making when we don't also represent the economic harm being done. "Flattening the curve" is being represented as if it were the only goal. Ignoring costs is always a blueprint for disaster. As Sowell puts it: there are no solutions, only tradeoffs. Right now we have little reason to believe that we're doing more good than harm. Of course we might be--but we're flying virtually blind. We could be looking back on this ten years from now as our biggest mistake of the twenty-first century thus far.
   The stimulus is a way to flatten the economic curve, deferring the pain. But with interest. Also, in this respect, we're shifting the pain to younger generations.
   Somebody has to be working all this stuff out.


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