Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Trump Pits His Gut Against His Own Health Experts

I honestly don't know which to bet on...
My normal inclination is to go with the experts.
But without hearing from economists, too, it's hard to know.
At some point the economic harm of the shutdown is going to exceed the medical benefits.
Right now, we seem to be getting only one side of the story.
I was under the impression that things are about to get bad on the WuFlu side--that is, that we're still heading for the peak of the curve.
OTOH, it does seem that experts overestimated the mortality rate.
And I gotta say...though I'd probably be tarred and feathered and run out of academia on a rail if anyone every heard me...Trump's gut seems to have done a lot better thus far than I would have predicted.
Maybe we should at least consider--as some have suggested--getting the economy started up again while keeping the old and otherwise vulnerable quarantined. My county only has two confirmed cases. With more widespread testing, we might oughtta consider ramping up again. That doesn't seem like a good idea for NYC...but I don't see why the two places should be treated the same. There are a lot of places and a lot of professions that don't require high human density. You can't run NYC without subways and busses. But there are lots of places were and lots of businesses such that it's easy to keep human density low (or "social distance" high/great).
Not my areas.


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