tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post5117256909832564728..comments2024-03-26T12:23:29.784-04:00Comments on Philosoraptor: The Great Filter and Intelligent Life Elsewhere in the UniverseWinston Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780746334199630779noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-52586810443254491982014-04-09T23:40:24.696-04:002014-04-09T23:40:24.696-04:00The output of the Drake equation confuses me. Goi...The output of the Drake equation confuses me. Going with the values given in the original estimates, we have:<br /><br /> R = 1/year (1 star formed per year, on the average over the life of the <br />galaxy; this was regarded as conservative)<br /> fp = 0.2-0.5 (one fifth to one half of all stars formed will have planets)<br /> ne = 1-5 (stars with planets will have between 1 and 5 The Mystichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00813641115915460692noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-41183037731213844672014-04-08T14:31:38.711-04:002014-04-08T14:31:38.711-04:00What I was trying to get across is that the Drake ...What I was trying to get across is that the Drake equation and theories that try to supply values for its terms, like the filter theory, are problematically unindexed to time. They treat star systems like balls in an urn, already black or white, just waiting to be examined. This causes us to illicitly infer from the present infrequency of interstellar civilizations to improbability.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-58384489911241217212014-04-08T13:47:48.133-04:002014-04-08T13:47:48.133-04:00Yo, as a generic response to everybody...
I was u...Yo, as a generic response to everybody...<br /><br />I was under the impression that we're still basically using a version of the Drake equation to estimate the prevalence of technologically-advanced civilizations... And I'm also under the impression that our best estimates predict that we ought to have detected some by now. This is basically the Fermi paradox. <br /><br />Now, of courseWinston Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08780746334199630779noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-51762750923957283072014-04-08T12:00:46.083-04:002014-04-08T12:00:46.083-04:00One problem with the filter concept is that it doe...One problem with the filter concept is that it doesn't really consider the issue of timing. The fact that humans have not seen evidence of interstellar civilization in our neighbourhood might not mean that interstellar civilization is an improbable phenomenon. We might in fact simply be a very early expression of a common one. The earth is about four billion years old. For most of the earth&#Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-89550227531895491732014-04-08T09:15:00.066-04:002014-04-08T09:15:00.066-04:00We live in the middle of an expanding sphere almos...We live in the middle of an expanding sphere almost 100 light years in radius of radio transmission. As it says in the Hitchhikers' Guide to the Galaxy, space is really big. We've barely taken baby steps outside our own planet, so I think it premature to say that we're the only life in the Universe, or even the Milky Way Galaxy.<br /><br />From archy and mehitable, by the writer DonDark Avengerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02220642215040873632noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-3004971104313037982014-04-07T23:34:26.534-04:002014-04-07T23:34:26.534-04:00Seems kinda presumptuous of me. I mean, even if i...Seems kinda presumptuous of me. I mean, even if intelligent life is only occurring at the rate of one species per galaxy at any given moment, there are still billions of instances of intelligent life in the universe at any given moment.<br /><br />And it ain't like it's unlikely that we wouldn't run into each other if separated in that fashion.<br /><br />The sheer size of the The Mystichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00813641115915460692noreply@blogger.com