tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post3860668937062716783..comments2024-03-26T12:23:29.784-04:00Comments on Philosoraptor: Winston Smithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08780746334199630779noreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-12687348580658198652007-04-04T16:42:00.000-04:002007-04-04T16:42:00.000-04:00The key part of Clinton's essay is"But if we leave...The key part of Clinton's essay is<BR/><BR/>"But if we leave Iraq with chemical and biological weapons, after 12 years of defiance, there is a considerable risk that one day these weapons will fall into the wrong hands and put many more lives at risk than will be lost in overthrowing Saddam."<BR/><BR/>Since such weapons can be reconstituted in a matter of months, the actual possession of them at Tom Van Dykehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07121072404143877596noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-58183989865800691892007-04-04T14:13:00.000-04:002007-04-04T14:13:00.000-04:00Winston wrote:Your next question here will be:Say ...Winston wrote:<BR/><I>Your next question here will be:<BR/><BR/>Say more of this "past evidence" of which you speak so fascinatingly...<BR/><BR/>To which I will respond:<BR/><BR/>Uhh...ummm.... Der. Guess I'm not exactly clear on that. Because he used some sometimes?</I><BR/><BR/>The "past evidence" is at least in part, I suspect, that Saddam Hussein was a low-down, lying, thieving, conniving, Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11108488529897012405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-70149680872332725682007-04-04T10:23:00.000-04:002007-04-04T10:23:00.000-04:00Jim,It's weird alright...but a semi-interesting si...Jim,<BR/><BR/>It's weird alright...but a semi-interesting sidebar:<BR/><BR/>I uttered almost exactly the following sentence to a friend of mine in the lead-up to the war:<BR/><BR/>"The administration's "WMD" evidence is obviously shit--but there's no doubt in my mind that Saddam has biological and chemical weapons."<BR/><BR/>Now, Clinton knows a lot more than I do, so his error is less excusable Winston Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08780746334199630779noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-62089560949957627592007-04-03T21:38:00.000-04:002007-04-03T21:38:00.000-04:00Tom wrote (appropos Mitchell's piece)[O]ne wonders...Tom wrote (appropos Mitchell's piece)<BR/><I>[O]ne wonders if the GOPers who are willing to run from Iraq come Labor Day would do so because they thought it was the right thing, or because the politcal cost to themselves of continuing to support the war would be too high.</I><BR/><BR/>If Mitchell is correct in saying:<BR/><I>the moderate center of the Republican caucus is ... not in favor of the Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11108488529897012405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-79592303426929845532007-04-03T21:33:00.000-04:002007-04-03T21:33:00.000-04:00Tom notes that Mr. Blair may be doing what he thin...Tom notes that Mr. Blair may be doing what he thinks is right by continuing to side with Mr. Bush. Tom is correct, Blair might be acting solely out of a conviction that invading Iraq was the right thing to do, and the surge is a viable approach to restoring order.<BR/><BR/>On the other hand, Blair may also (as I believe to be the case) feel that the political cost to admitting he made a massive Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11108488529897012405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-12822849721980060432007-04-03T17:01:00.000-04:002007-04-03T17:01:00.000-04:00And per Andrea Mitchell's comment, and not to spar...And per Andrea Mitchell's comment, and not to spare anyone from charges of opportunism, one wonders if the GOPers who are willing to run from Iraq come Labor Day would do so because they thought it was the right thing, or because the politcal cost to themselves of continuing to support the war would be too high.Tom Van Dykehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07121072404143877596noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-27302185948690472032007-04-03T16:51:00.000-04:002007-04-03T16:51:00.000-04:00Or, Jim, Blair simply did what he thought was righ...Or, Jim, Blair simply did what he thought was right.<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,916233,00.html" REL="nofollow">Interesting commentary by Bill Himself Clinton on the eve of the war.</A><BR/><BR/>As for the thought experiment, I think the Tories in the UK and Mr. Neiwert's not-atypical comment are significant results.Tom Van Dykehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07121072404143877596noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-22765327817626512782007-04-03T13:07:00.000-04:002007-04-03T13:07:00.000-04:00I've been havnig a hard time posting comments of l...I've been havnig a hard time posting comments of late...<BR/><BR/>Anway:<BR/><BR/>1. Policy markets: another good idea, Richard. My guess: VERY MUCH senseless political chatter and obvious bullshit could be dispensed with if every assertion had to transformed into an actual wager.<BR/><BR/>I often use a similar device with philosophy students, who often hit a phase at which they'll try to defend Winston Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08780746334199630779noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-19778731178057528902007-04-03T00:08:00.000-04:002007-04-03T00:08:00.000-04:00Thank you, anonymous, for your kind words.Tom's so...Thank you, anonymous, for your kind words.<BR/><BR/>Tom's source (Rep Rangel) is definitive, as opposed to mine (Mitchell), although I find Mitchell's comments quite plausible. <BR/><BR/>Tom's citing of the UK calls for a more careful response than I can give. Let me simply state my beliefs (without justifying them).<BR/><BR/>The question (to my mind) is why Blair went along with Bush. <BR/><BR/>Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11108488529897012405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-83674347429275764022007-04-02T23:28:00.000-04:002007-04-02T23:28:00.000-04:00"evidence", meaning, your reference to Mitchell's ..."evidence", meaning, your reference to Mitchell's testimony that most Republicans are really supporting the war for partisan reasons. elaborate thought-machinery works in math, philosophy, physics, economics....i'm not sure it's going to help us with thisAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-20334939662570629072007-04-02T23:24:00.000-04:002007-04-02T23:24:00.000-04:00Thank you Jim for some EVIDENCE that helps decide ...Thank you Jim for some EVIDENCE that helps decide this question, one way or another. I also thought Tom's remark above about the UK was somewhat enlightening.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-87991100052961259852007-04-02T23:20:00.000-04:002007-04-02T23:20:00.000-04:00Anonymous wrote:"I really didn't find the discussi...Anonymous wrote:<BR/>"I really didn't find the discussion very fruitful. How have we now straightened out our thinking about Iraq?"<BR/><BR/>I think WS's hoped that <BR/>1) If we could find consensus as to the probably actions of the hypothetical amnesiac congress, that could be the right course of action for us to follow.<BR/><BR/>And,<BR/><BR/>2) We could more easily find that consensus in the Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11108488529897012405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-91626792473234676002007-04-02T23:13:00.000-04:002007-04-02T23:13:00.000-04:00Tom notes:"The mushy middle (via RedState), the op...Tom notes:<BR/>"The mushy middle (via RedState), the opportunists. Dante had a special place in Hell for them."<BR/><BR/>And then quotes Rep. Rangel's acknowledgement that some pork was included to get the votes need to pass the bill.<BR/><BR/>This is a problem on both sides of the issue, as Andrea Mitchell noted on Chris Matthew's show:<BR/><BR/><I>What I’ve been told from inside the moderate Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11108488529897012405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-79609638484256814972007-04-02T23:01:00.000-04:002007-04-02T23:01:00.000-04:00With all due respect to everyone, I really didn't ...With all due respect to everyone, I really didn't find the discussion very fruitful. How have we now straightened out our thinking about Iraq? Intuitions about who would have supported which policy in different possible worlds really don't help me clarify what should be done. One person's intuition on this matter will totally differ from another person's. Nor does Richard's "bounding exercise" orAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-91746424505663710092007-04-02T22:56:00.000-04:002007-04-02T22:56:00.000-04:00Let me correct the typo (I hope most understood my...Let me correct the typo (I hope most understood my intent) in my post a while ago:<BR/><I>If the answer is "No, the presence of our troops is not improving the mid- to long-term prospects for Iraq." then we should <B>leave immediately.</B></I><BR/><BR/>Correction is in bold.Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11108488529897012405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-10389869761414303822007-04-02T18:12:00.000-04:002007-04-02T18:12:00.000-04:00Another approach to this question would be to esta...Another approach to this question would be to establish a policy market where people bet real money on the outcomes. Recent work has even come up with ways to build conditionals into policy markets, e.g. if the U.S. withdraws in less than six months and a regional war breaks out in less than a year could be one “contract” in the policy market.<BR/><BR/>AEI-Brookings has done a lot of work on Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-49655782979732479422007-04-02T16:48:00.000-04:002007-04-02T16:48:00.000-04:00David,Good point, but:Actually, we don't have to k...David,<BR/><BR/>Good point, but:<BR/><BR/>Actually, we don't have to know which motives the people who got us into Iraq have...though we DO need to know what motives our current leaders have...and since those groups are basically the same...well, same basic problem.<BR/><BR/>This is an interesting point b/c I neglected to specify whether this important factor changed or stayed the same when we Winston Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08780746334199630779noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-36782268964222098582007-04-02T12:50:00.000-04:002007-04-02T12:50:00.000-04:00I'm pretty convinced that this thought experiment ...I'm pretty convinced that this thought experiment quickly turns into one that necessitates a book to be written in order to accomplish the goals of the experiment, and by the time the research and investigating was done and the thoughts were coherently linked, edited, and published, the problem would be over anyway.<BR/><BR/>Not that someone shouldn't do it if he or she has the ability to devote The Mystichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00813641115915460692noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-31288339697162125152007-04-02T01:37:00.000-04:002007-04-02T01:37:00.000-04:00Winston:It's an interesting thought experiment, bu...Winston:<BR/><BR/>It's an interesting thought experiment, but when I begin to follow through on it, I encounter one chief obstacle:<BR/><BR/>In order to assess what the course of action would be henceforth, we'd have to ascertain what our objectives are in Iraq, and what our reasonable expectations of success might be.<BR/><BR/>It's impossible to assess these matters without intertwining them David Neiwerthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02910696308820789014noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-90771111365158771842007-04-01T20:53:00.000-04:002007-04-01T20:53:00.000-04:00The mushy middle (via RedState), the opportunists....The mushy middle (via RedState), the opportunists. Dante had a special place in Hell for them.<BR/><BR/>On Meet the Press today:<BR/><BR/>MR. RUSSERT: The House voted for funding for the war with a date certain, March of '08, to begin a withdrawal of U.S. troops. But in that bill was $20 billion of so-called pork, money for cricket infestation, tours of the Capitol, security at the National Tom Van Dykehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07121072404143877596noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-12251861830809954852007-04-01T10:36:00.000-04:002007-04-01T10:36:00.000-04:00Heh. Not since grad school, LL, though I can see w...Heh. Not since grad school, LL, though I can see why you might think so.Winston Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08780746334199630779noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-13167047037601875142007-03-31T23:55:00.000-04:002007-03-31T23:55:00.000-04:00WS, have you been rereading Rawls?WS, have you been rereading Rawls?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-17364546588516789652007-03-31T18:55:00.000-04:002007-03-31T18:55:00.000-04:00As to your point about distribution curves, WS, it...As to your point about distribution curves, WS, it does expose the mushy middle to examination for partisan hypocrisies.<BR/><BR/>For instance, the position of the right that Iraq is key to the Islamicism crisis and um, <I>redeployment</I> is unthinkable is a principled position. So is the left's total (as near as I can see) opposition to force in general. I disagree with everything in the <I>Tom Van Dykehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07121072404143877596noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-91332049457119378532007-03-31T18:40:00.000-04:002007-03-31T18:40:00.000-04:00True, I did abandon neutral language and suggest t...True, I did abandon neutral language and suggest that this was virtuous on the part of conservatives, begging the question as it were. <BR/><BR/>On the other hand, the observation about the UK does indicate that the left are not merely partisan hypocrites, either---they would oppose one of their own, and do.Tom Van Dykehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07121072404143877596noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5264937.post-51244015590024888252007-03-31T13:08:00.000-04:002007-03-31T13:08:00.000-04:00Tom's got a really interesting point here, inciden...Tom's got a really interesting point here, incidentally.<BR/><BR/>Why the difference in the UK?<BR/><BR/>Tom, as is generally (but not always) his way, wants to suggest that this suggests some virtue on the part of conservatives.<BR/><BR/>That's one option...I can think of other plausible ones, but don't want to influence anybody just yet.<BR/><BR/>At any rate, Tom points to an important Winston Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08780746334199630779noreply@blogger.com